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U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the press aboard Air Force One en route to Fiumicino Airport near Rome for Pope Francis’s funeral on April 25, 2025.
Before securing his presidential election victory last fall, Trump famously claimed he could resolve the Russia-Ukraine war in “one day.”
However, during the formative first 100 days of his second term, achieving a credible ceasefire agreement has proven more challenging than he initially expected.
Trump has since walked back his prior assertions regarding a quick resolution to the three-year conflict. “I said that figuratively, and as an exaggeration, to make a point,” he explained to Time magazine last week. “It was said in jest, but also meant to convey that [the war] would be resolved.”
Despite this, the Trump administration has acted promptly to initiate conversations with both Russia and Ukraine, seeking a ceasefire that could lead to broader peace negotiations, though tangible progress remains elusive.
Ongoing discussions involve U.S. teams and representatives from Kyiv and Moscow. However, Washington recently warned that it might withdraw from negotiations if no immediate compromises are made. Both sides continue to blame one another for derailing ceasefire efforts and failing to uphold a U.S.-mediated agreement concerning energy infrastructure targets.
A Pivotal Week Ahead
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Sunday that the upcoming week is “very critical” for the administration as it assesses whether to continue its involvement in ceasefire discussions. “There are reasons to be optimistic, but we must also be realistic,” Rubio noted, clarifying, “We are close, yet not close enough.”
The conflict persists with both nations launching drone and missile attacks while conducting separate talks with the U.S. Ukraine’s aspirations to regain its pre-war territorial integrity faced setbacks last week when U.S. indications suggested it might have to accept territorial losses, including Crimea, as part of a proposed peace settlement.
In response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov affirmed that Russia remains committed to peace talks, asserting that although military operations continue, U.S. efforts “to steer the process towards a peaceful resolution” are ongoing. He declared, “President [Vladimir Putin] has repeatedly confirmed Russia’s readiness to begin negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions.”
Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, expressed skepticism about the potential for a breakthrough in the upcoming week, remarking, “While this week is being framed as another ‘make or break’ moment for diplomacy, I see little reason for optimism regarding a resolution.” She emphasized that both sides may claim a desire for peace, primarily to cater to Trump’s expectations, but noted that maintaining the status quo benefits Putin.
“President Trump appears increasingly frustrated,” she added, pointing out his ambitious promise of peace on day one, coupled with his aspiration for a Nobel Peace Prize. Yet she remarked, “Putin is not in a rush to negotiate.” The prevailing conditions seem to skew in favor of Russia.
Negotiating Territory
During an unscheduled meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican on Saturday, amidst Pope Francis’s funeral, there were signs of optimism that Zelenskyy might persuade Trump against conceding to Russian territorial demands.
Following the meeting, Trump exhibited a firmer stance toward Putin, stating he expected the Russian leader to “stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal,” while also hinting at potential further sanctions against Moscow.
However, Trump suggested that Zelenskyy might be open to discussions regarding Crimea—territory annexed by Russia in 2014—a “red line” that the Ukrainian leader had previously been unwilling to cross. When asked whether he believed Zelenskyy would consider relinquishing the peninsula, Trump responded, “I think so, yeah.”
Zelenskyy, in turn, informed the BBC on Friday that Ukraine lacks sufficient military resources to reclaim Crimea, suggesting that “a full and unconditional ceasefire opens up the possibility to discuss everything.”
Meanwhile, the Kremlin asserted on Saturday that Putin is prepared for direct negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions, though skepticism remains among European diplomats. Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, expressed doubt about Russia’s commitment to peace, highlighting its recent attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
“We understand that Ukraine desires peace; it requires mutual willingness, yet it only takes one party to instigate conflict,” Kallas commented, adding that “Russia’s actions make it apparent that it does not seek peace.” She also stated, “International law is unequivocal: Crimea is part of Ukraine, and conceding it would merely encourage aggressors.”
Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko asserted on Monday that “the sole barrier to peace is Russia and Putin, who is not interested in resolution, whereas we Ukrainians desire peace as soon as possible.” Yet, he acknowledged the possibility of a ceasefire being established while Russia maintains its hold on Ukrainian territory.
“Ukraine will never recognize any segment of our land as Russian,” he declared, “but hostilities can cease even as we grapple with the reality of occupation.” He lamented that this would not be the first instance in history of such a scenario, expressing hope for a future where “the Russian Empire will disintegrate, and we will reclaim our territories.” Nevertheless, he emphasized the firm stance of never recognizing Russian claims over any part of Ukraine.
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