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The Broadway season of 2024-25 commenced in June with a revival of the play Home and concluded recently with the debuts of musicals Dead Outlaw and Real Women Have Curves. This season showcased a total of 42 productions, including musicals, plays, and revivals—six more than the previous year. As a result, Tony nominators will face an extensive array of contenders when casting their votes, complicating the prediction process.
With the Tony nominations set to be unveiled this Thursday, we present below our predictions—compiled from insights by experts, editors, and community members—across 17 out of the 26 categories. Whether you align with these forecasts or have differing opinions, there’s still an opportunity to submit your predictions at Gold Derby.
MUSICALS
BEST MUSICAL
1. Maybe Happy Ending – 7/4
2. Dead Outlaw – 4/1
3. Death Becomes Her – 6/1
4. Operation Mincemeat – 13/2
5. Buena Vista Social Club – 9/1
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
1. Gypsy – 2/1
2. Sunset Boulevard – 9/4
3. Floyd Collins – 9/2
4. Pirates! The Penzance Musical – 13/2
BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
1. Audra McDonald, Gypsy – 41/20
2. Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Boulevard – 59/20
3. Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her – 13/2
4. Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her – 8/1
5. Helen J Shen, Maybe Happy Ending – 10/1
BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL)
1. Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending – 15/8
2. Jonathan Groff, Just in Time – 9/2
3. Tom Francis, Sunset Boulevard – 5/1
4. Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins – 6/1
5. Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw – 7/1
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL)
1. Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club – 12/5
2. Joy Woods, Gypsy – 69/20
3. Bernadette Peters, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends – 7/1
4. Michelle Williams, Death Becomes Her – 23/2
5. Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves – 15/1
BEST FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL)
1. Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat – 43/20
2. Danny Burstein, Gypsy – 37/10
3. Thom Sesma, Dead Outlaw – 11/2
4. Christopher Sieber, Death Becomes Her – 8/1
5. David Thaxton, Sunset Boulevard – 14/1
BEST DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)
1. Sunset Blvd – 7/4
2. Maybe Happy Ending – 9/2
3. Dead Outlaw – 6/1
4. Gypsy – 15/2
5. Operation Mincemeat – 17/2
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Maybe Happy Ending – 41/20
2. Death Becomes Her – 4/1
3. Dead Outlaw – 4/1
4. Operation Mincemeat – 6/1
5. Boop! The Musical – 14/1
BEST MUSICAL BOOK
1. Dead Outlaw – 51/20
2. Maybe Happy Ending – 31/10
3. Operation Mincemeat – 9/2
4. Death Becomes Her – 11/2
5. Buena Vista Social Club – 10/1
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
1. Boop! The Musical – 53/20
2. Buena Vista Social Club – 19/5
3. Smash – 5/1
4. Death Becomes Her – 11/2
5. Pirates! The Penzance Musical – 17/2
SEE Tony Talk: Our final predictions for the 2025 nominations in the top 12 categories.
PLAYS
BEST PLAY
1. Oh, Mary! – 46/25
2. John Proctor Is the Villain – 9/2
3. Purpose – 9/2
4. The Hills of California – 13/2
5. English – 23/2
BEST PLAY REVIVAL
1. Eureka Day – 14/5
2. Glengarry Glen Ross – 14/5
3. Yellow Face – 18/5
4. Othello – 8/1
BEST ACTRESS (PLAY)
1. Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray – 83/50
2. Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California – 19/5
3. Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villain – 11/2
4. Mia Farrow, The Roommate – 7/1
5. LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose – 17/2
BEST ACTOR (PLAY)
1. Cole Escola, Oh, Mary! – 17/10
2. Jake Gyllenhaal, Othello – 5/1
3. George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck – 15/2
4. Jon Michael Hill, Purpose – 17/2
5. Denzel Washington, Othello – 12/1
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY)
1. Kara Young, Purpose – 43/20
2. Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day – 7/2
3. Bianca Leigh, Oh, Mary! – 5/1
4. Mare Winningham, Cult of Love – 21/2
5. Leanne Best, The Hills of California – 23/2
BEST FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY)
1. Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary! – 51/20
2. Kieran Culkin, Glengarry Glen Ross – 16/5
3. Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross – 11/2
4. Francis Jue, Yellow Face – 8/1
5. Bill Irwin, Eureka Day – 12/1
BEST DIRECTOR (PLAY)
1. Oh, Mary! – 9/5
2. The Hills of California – 9/2
3. John Proctor Is the Villain – 11/2
4. Purpose – 6/1
5. Glengarry Glen Ross – 15/1
Source
www.goldderby.com