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Heat-Related Deaths in Europe Projected to Increase Dramatically by 2100
A recent study published in The Lancet Public Health warns that heat-related fatalities in Europe could see a significant increase, potentially tripling by the year 2100 if current climate policies remain unchanged. The research indicates that this surge in mortality is expected to be most pronounced in the southern regions of the continent.
The implications of these findings underscore the urgent need for enhanced climate policies aimed at limiting global temperature rises, particularly to safeguard the most vulnerable populations from the adverse effects associated with elevated temperatures.
Recent summers in Europe have been marked by extreme heat, correlating with increased death rates. The elderly, who are particularly susceptible to heat-related illnesses, will comprise a growing segment of the population as life expectancy rises.
Unlike previous studies, which have largely focused on national trends or lacked localized detail, this analysis offers a detailed examination of the health risks tied to temperature extremes across 1,368 regions in 30 European nations. This enables a clearer identification of areas at heightened risk as we progress through the century.
According to the study’s findings, if global temperatures increase by 3°C—an upper limit based on current trajectories—the annual count of heat-related deaths in Europe could escalate from the current 43,729 to a staggering 128,809 by 2100. For comparison, cold-related deaths, which are currently more prevalent, are estimated to decrease slightly, from 363,809 to 333,703.
Dr. Juan-Carlos Ciscar, affiliated with the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission, remarked, “Our analysis indicates a significant shift in the ratio of cold-to-heat mortality throughout this century. Heat-related deaths will climb across all regions, particularly in some areas, while cold-related fatalities will see a slight overall reduction.” This comprehensive study accounts for over 1,000 regions, allowing for a more granular understanding of future impacts.
The research utilized a dataset that evaluated the epidemiological and socioeconomic conditions in 854 urban areas across Europe, estimating the mortality risk for various age groups, from 20 years to over 85. Projections were made considering four levels of global warming (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C) utilizing an array of climate models.
Currently, temperature-related extremes lead to approximately 407,538 deaths annually in Europe, with cold accounting for 363,809 and heat for 43,729. The analysis revealed geographical disparities: cold-related deaths are highest in Eastern Europe and the Baltic region, while heat-related fatalities are most pronounced in Southern Europe, particularly in areas like Croatia.
Should temperatures rise by 3°C, the study predicts an overall increase in temperature-related deaths by 13.5%, amounting to an additional 55,000 deaths annually—with the elderly population over the age of 85 being the most affected demographic.
Currently, there is a ratio of 8.3 cold-related deaths for each heat-related death in Europe. However, this discrepancy is anticipated to decline significantly by 2100. Under the 3°C scenario, the ratio could drop to 2.6:1, while adherence to the Paris Agreement’s target of 1.5°C could reduce it to 6.7:1.
By the end of the century, projections suggest that cold-related deaths across Europe will remain high but exhibit negligible decreases, with rates varying between 29 and 225 per 100,000 individuals depending on the country. Some regions, particularly in Eastern Europe, may see moderate declines, while increases are expected in countries like Ireland, Norway, and Sweden due to their aging populations.
Conversely, heat-related deaths are projected to rise throughout Europe, with mortality rates estimated to jump to between 2 and 117 per 100,000 people in different regions. Areas identified as “hotspots” for this increase include Spain, Italy, Greece, and parts of France.
Dr. David GarcÃa-León, also from the Joint Research Centre, emphasized the urgent need for targeted policies to protect those most at risk from temperature extremes. “Our findings indicate a significant rise in temperature-related deaths as climate conditions worsen and populations age,” he noted.
The researchers conceded specific limitations in their study. Their results are primarily based on urban data, which may present an inflated view of temperature-related mortality compared to rural settings. Furthermore, variables such as gender, ethnicity, and impacts on vulnerable groups like infants were not thoroughly examined.
In a related commentary, Dr. Matteo Pinna Pintor of the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research emphasized that while heat exposure is expected to grow, an aging population will complicate efforts to reduce cold-related mortality. He remarked, “This study reinforces skepticism regarding significant reductions in cold-related deaths as temperate climates warm, particularly given the persistent health risks associated with mild cold temperatures.”
More information:
Temperature-related mortality burden and projected change in 1368 European regions: a modelling study, The Lancet Public Health (2024). DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00179-8
Citation:
Modeling study suggests heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by century’s end under current climate policies (2024).
Source
phys.org