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New Toolbox Enhances Predictions of Climate Change Impact on Wildlife

A novel prediction tool aimed at assessing wildlife population vulnerability in the context of climate change has emerged, offering valuable insights through the integration of genomic, geographic, and environmental data. This innovative toolbox, detailed in a study published in Methods in Ecology and Evolution, is poised to aid both researchers and conservation practitioners in evaluating how global changes could affect wildlife populations.

Led by the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) based in Leipzig, the research brings together an international team from European nations, including the UK and the Netherlands, and collaborators in the United States.

The ‘Life on the Edge’ toolbox addresses a critical gap in conventional climate change vulnerability assessments, which typically emphasize species-level data while neglecting the variability within intraspecific populations. As these populations often serve as early indicators for species decline, understanding their dynamics is crucial for effective conservation efforts.

Framework Built on Four Key Metrics

To construct this framework, the researchers developed a standardized approach that forecasts the ‘exposure’ of populations by analyzing current species distribution alongside projected environmental changes under future climate scenarios. The toolbox additionally employs georeferenced population-level genomic data to assess neutral genetic diversity—termed ‘neutral sensitivity’—and to identify genomic regions that facilitate climate adaptation, allowing for the estimation of ‘adaptive sensitivity’.

The third metric evaluates potential movement barriers that could impede populations from relocating in response to climate shifts, ultimately affecting their chances of survival. Each metric contributes distinct insights into population status, enabling the creation of an overarching measure of ‘population vulnerability’ to prioritize conservation actions effectively. Demonstrating its applicability, the team tested the toolbox on three frog species from East Africa, as well as two species of bats in Europe, to evaluate population vulnerabilities across several regions, including Tanzania, Kenya, Malawi, and Mozambique.

Significant Advancement in Conservation Science

With its versatile application, the Life on the Edge toolbox represents a significant advancement in understanding population vulnerabilities within species. Its modular design and adaptability allow researchers to input data from various species, fostering deeper insights into wildlife populations, which is essential in combating biodiversity loss.

This tool can now be deployed in practical settings, enabling ongoing monitoring of population dynamics influenced by environmental changes. “Life on the Edge offers a comprehensive and user-friendly method to comprehend how climate change impacts wildlife populations, thereby guiding targeted conservation strategies,” stated Orly Razgour from the University of Exeter, a senior author on the study. “Incorporating genomic data enhances our capacity to predict wildlife vulnerability in the face of climate challenges.”

This type of innovation is vital for empowering researchers and conservationists to harness emerging genomic technologies for informed decision-making in wildlife management and preservation efforts.

More information: Christopher D. Barratt et al, Life on the Edge: A new toolbox for population‐level climate change vulnerability assessments, Methods in Ecology and Evolution (2024). DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.14429

Provided by: German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig

Source
phys.org