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WASHINGTON — Republicans have recently navigated their budget strategy to a significant milestone, yet the most challenging aspects lie ahead. The resolution, approved this week, allows the party to draft legislation capable of moving through Congress without needing Democratic backing. From this point, their focus shifts to assembling a final bill that aligns with the demands of conservative members without jeopardizing the political standing of more vulnerable lawmakers whose districts are dependent on essential safety net programs.
In an environment where majorities in both the House and Senate are slim, Republicans can scarcely afford any dissent within their ranks when formulating this legislation, granting individual lawmakers considerable influence over the outcome.
“It’s going to take all of us to get it done,” stated House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.
The pathway ahead appears steep and fraught with difficulties.
The GOP is intent on extending the individual tax cuts initially enacted during President Donald Trump’s administration, which are set to expire at the end of this year. Moreover, they aim to broaden the scope of tax relief, potentially fulfilling campaign pledges made by Trump, such as eliminating income taxes on tips and overtime wages.
However, tax reductions comprise only part of their ambitions. Conservatives in the House provided the necessary votes for Thursday’s budget plan following assurances from leadership that the final legislation would include substantial spending cuts, projected at a minimum of $1.5 trillion. Such cuts are anticipated to impose changes on federal programs, including Medicaid, sparking apprehension among some party members regarding their support.
“The struggles Republicans have faced so far are only a glimmer of what’s to come,” remarked Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.
Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, acknowledges the complexity of the battle unfolding for Republicans. He noted that Trump has explicitly expressed his opposition to any reductions in benefits for Medicaid recipients, potentially contradicting the appetite among some conservatives for drastic spending reductions.
“If it’s this rocky now, it’s only going to get worse from here on out if the speaker is not able to get the entire conference in line,” Miller cautioned.
Democrats frame the ongoing discussions as Republicans’ efforts to diminish crucial government programs in pursuit of tax cuts that mainly benefit affluent households. This narrative is poised to resonate as Democrats campaign in anticipation of the 2026 midterm elections.
“At this point, they’re all worried about primaries and they are worried about Elon’s money, but they ought to be worried about a general election as well,” stated Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., alluding to the financial influence of Trump’s associate, Elon Musk. “I think it’s going to be very difficult for a moderate Republican, if there’s still any left, to be able to vote for this and go home and defend it.”
Several Republicans have conveyed to their leadership prior to the budget vote that they will scrutinize any proposed changes to Medicaid in the upcoming legislation.
“This was just making sure that there is a clear understanding here that there are a group of members that will not cut benefits from seniors and our most vulnerable New Yorkers who rely on Medicaid,” remarked Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y.
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who faces reelection next year, has also communicated her stance to party leaders.
“I could not make my position on Medicaid cuts clearer,” she stated. “I am not going to support cuts that affect low-income families, disabled individuals, low-income seniors, rural hospitals.”
Republicans assert that their focus is on implementing work requirements for able-bodied beneficiaries and conducting more stringent eligibility reviews. Yet, Democrats argue that achieving the budgetary savings discussed necessitates simultaneously cutting benefits.
In contrast, Republicans contend that extending the individual and estate tax cuts from Trump’s term is vital for their electoral success in the upcoming year. According to the House Ways and Means Committee, a family of four with a median income of $80,610 would see their taxes rise by $1,695 if these tax cuts are allowed to lapse.
For the past few years, Republicans have attributed rising debt levels to the Biden administration, and a critical test will be determining how many choose to maintain that focus while seeking to expand tax cuts.
A recent estimate from the Joint Committee on Taxation suggests that extending the 2017 tax cuts will add approximately $5.5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, including interest, with projections of $4.6 trillion excluding interest. If Trump’s proposed tax reforms are included, the total cost could reach $7 trillion.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., indicated he might push for dividing the bill into two separate reconciliation bills should negotiations stall.
“I’m going to say break it apart, because they need money for the border yesterday and they also need money for DoD,” he explained, referring to the Department of Defense.
House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed his readiness to tackle the challenges ahead. “The American people are counting on us,” he emphasized.
Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., remains optimistic that a final bill will ultimately pass, believing that the House can prevail in its most critical debates surrounding taxation and spending cuts.
“I will bet you they will fold rather than inflict the largest tax increase in American history on their voters,” Cole remarked about the Senate. “And two-thirds of them, with all due respect, aren’t on the ballot next time. … Whereas everyone here is on the line. And our majority is much more on the line than their majority is.”
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