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The race for the Best Director Oscar is shaping up to be unpredictable, particularly after the recent Directors Guild Awards introduced a significant shift in momentum. Before Sean Baker secured the top prize for his film Anora, the spotlight had been focused on Brady Corbet, director of The Brutalist, who was widely considered the frontrunner. Many experts in the awards analysis community had anticipated Corbet’s victory on March 2, but Baker’s triumph has changed the narrative. Here’s a breakdown of the evolving dynamics in the Best Director race.
Leading Contender: Sean Baker, Anora
Having been a strong contender for Best Picture for an extended period, Anora—which won the Palme d’Or—has finally garnered the attention it deserves, particularly for Baker as a director. Initially underestimated, Baker found himself in fourth place in the Best Director odds shortly after the Oscar nominations were revealed in January. However, his recent victory at the Directors Guild Awards has significantly bolstered his chances at the Oscars. Historically, the Directors Guild Award winner has a high success rate at the Oscars, with only three winners since 2000 failing to translate their DGA win into an Oscar victory. This trend highlights Baker’s improved odds in the upcoming ceremony. Even if he were to experience a setback at the BAFTA Awards, it would still be hard to envision a scenario where he does not take home the Oscar.
Possible Contender: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Brady Corbet was considered the leading candidate for the Best Director Oscar prior to the Directors Guild Awards, having already claimed notable accolades like the Silver Lion at the Venice Film Festival and a Golden Globe for The Brutalist. However, there have been subtle indications that Corbet’s path to victory might not be as clear-cut. He did not win in the Best Director category from the prominent critics’ groups in New York and Los Angeles, and in a surprising turn, he lost to Jon M. Chu at the Critics Choice Awards. While some could rationalize that defeat as a strategic voting choice by the Critics Choice group, it raises questions about Corbet’s status as a frontrunner. If he were truly the critical darling, he would have likely secured a win from at least one of the major critics’ associations.
James Mangold has emerged as a dark horse in this race. Initially overlooked in the Best Director predictions, Mangold’s work on A Complete Unknown showcases his versatility, having successfully tackled various genres from music biopics to summer blockbusters. Despite a traditional approach to filmmaking, Mangold’s project subverts typical biopic norms and has garnered substantial admiration within the industry. The positive reception of A Complete Unknown throughout awards season positions Mangold as a potential beneficiary of an expansive wave of support, making his candidacy a compelling element of the Best Director discussion.
Source
www.goldderby.com