Apollo Warns: US-China Trade War May Lead to ‘Empty Shelves’ Soon

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Key Takeaways

The shipping of goods from China to the United States has seen a significant decline in recent weeks, according to a report from Apollo’s chief economist, Torsten Sløk. If this trend continues without intervention, consumers in the U.S. could soon face empty shelves, with inflation potentially rising as a consequence. This is particularly concerning for categories like toys, furniture, and clothing, as China is a major supplier for these products.

According to an analysis by Apollo Global Management of shipping trends, American consumers may soon find their shopping shelves increasingly devoid of commonly imported goods.

In a recent statement, Sløk highlighted the sharp drop in the number of vessels transporting goods from China to the U.S. He noted that if this trend persists, shoppers could soon experience shortages of essential items, which would likely drive up prices.

The implications of ongoing trade policy shifts could severely impact sectors like toys, apparel, and furniture. In 2024 alone, imports of toys, games, and sports equipment reached approximately $41 billion, with more than 70% originating from China, based on data from the Department of Commerce.

Sløk warned of potential “Covid-like shortages” in U.S. stores within weeks, suggesting that these disruptions could also bring about increased inflation.

Data shows that the daily number of cargo ships departing from China with dry goods has decreased from around 70 in mid-March to approximately 50, indicating a troubling trend. This decline also appears to extend to the average load per vessel.

The decrease in shipping volumes comes in the wake of the U.S. imposing a substantial 145% tariff on imports from China. According to the White House, some products face taxes that may reach as high as 245% due to specific commodity tariffs.

Government statistics indicate that over one-third of imported footwear and shoe parts and more than 20% of knit or crocheted apparel come from China. In addition, more than 25% of the value of imported furniture, bedding, and lamps last year was tied to Chinese products, as reported by the Department of Commerce.

The administration of President Donald Trump has recently indicated an interest in negotiating a trade deal with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the current tariff levels on goods exchanged between the two countries as “unsustainable.”

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