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The aviation sector is preparing for yet another year of challenges, with ongoing delivery delays at Boeing and persistent supply chain disruptions expected to extend into 2025, according to insights from industry experts.
Recently, the aviation community reflected on a troubling anniversary—a year since a door panel detached from a Boeing 737 Max 9 operated by Alaska Airlines, an incident that reignited scrutiny over Boeing’s safety and quality measures.
In response, Boeing implemented several reforms, including mandatory training for its workforce and heightened inspection protocols, as outlined in a company statement released on Friday. Additionally, the company enhanced its “Speak Up” program, promoting a culture where employees can voice workplace concerns more effectively.
Despite these efforts, Mike Boyd, president of aviation consultancy Boyd Group International, expressed skepticism during an interview with “Squawk Box Asia.” He stated, “The entire board of directors should have been fired,” asserting that superficial changes are not sufficient to address the deep-rooted problems the company faces.
Due to the lack of new aircraft deliveries from Boeing, airlines like Southwest, Wizz Air, and Ryanair have resorted to investing in the maintenance and refurbishment of older planes they originally planned to retire. Boyd remarked, “Fasten your seat belt. It’s going to be a very bumpy year ahead,” suggesting that Boeing’s troubles could lead to a significant loss of market presence to competitor Airbus.
U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg acknowledged Boeing’s uphill battle, stating that the company has “much more” to do in order to overcome its challenges. “The culture change at Boeing is a real work in progress,” he added, indicating that true progress will only be validated by consistent improvements in outcomes.
John Grant, chief analyst at OAG, noted that substantial progress at Boeing is unlikely until at least the end of 2025. He emphasized the regulatory scrutiny and new processes that the company must navigate, suggesting that while operational conditions have not worsened, financial and labor-related issues remain a significant concern.
Since 2018, Boeing has not reported a profitable year, and the company recently experienced setbacks due to a seven-week strike by machinists that concluded in November with a negotiated 38% pay increase for workers.
A spokesperson for Boeing reaffirmed the company’s commitment to stabilizing operations and executing its Safety and Quality Plan. The speaker highlighted various initiatives taken in 2024, including leadership changes, updates to the board, the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, and enhancements to its South Carolina facility for increased 787 aircraft production.
The Broader Aviation Landscape
The challenges within the aviation industry extend beyond Boeing, as noted by Brendan Sobie, an independent analyst at Sobie Aviation. He emphasized that issues such as parts shortages and engine maintenance affect the entire ecosystem surrounding the industry.
Sobie described the current period as “very difficult,” with no immediate relief in sight. “These problems are not going to be resolved in a single year but will likely take several years,” he explained.
Particularly frustrating for airlines are the reliability and maintenance issues facing engine manufacturers like Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce. However, Sobie hinted that the situation at Pratt & Whitney may be improving, stating, “It probably is past its worst period.”
Implications for Travelers
Engine deficiencies are prompting several airlines, including Hawaiian Airlines and Spirit Airlines, to ground parts of their fleets, according to Boyd. He pointed out that “the engines aren’t there,” referencing Wizz Air, which has grounded 40 aircraft for the fiscal year due to similar issues.
This situation is likely to affect airfare availability, making bargains harder to come by in 2025. Boyd noted, “If you’re searching for cheaper fares, I don’t think even Mr. O’Leary at Ryanair can promise that,” referencing Ryanair’s CEO.
Scott Keyes, the founder of the travel website Going, projected an increase in airfares for 2025. He shared data showing fluctuations in flight costs during and after the pandemic.
However, Sobie remarked that while capacity constraints from grounded flights pose challenges, an increase in flights—especially in the recovering Asia-Pacific market—might help balance the situation. He concluded that while airfares are normalizing above pre-pandemic levels yet below the peaks of 2022, many supply chain issues and costs still persist, implying that substantial challenges remain ahead for the industry.
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