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The Box Office Outlook: Disappointing Releases and Predictions for the Week Ahead

This weekend marks the end of the first quarter of 2025 in the box office realm, and the results are disheartening. Hollywood has struggled to present captivating content, with reviews for all four new films this weekend falling between “mixed” and “rotten.” This trend indicates a growing disconnect between studio offerings and audience expectations. The only film making waves this year is Marvel’s Captain America: Brave New World, which has managed to exceed $100 million domestically and is inching towards the $200 million mark. Despite this achievement, it remains one of the lower-grossing titles within Disney’s MCU lineup.

Disney’s Snow White is likely to maintain its dominance at the box office for another week despite the surrounding controversies. The film features Rachel Zegler and Gal Gadot and is set to compete against a variety of newcomers, including Amazon MGM Studios’ A Working Man, A24’s Death of a Unicorn, Universal Pictures’ The Woman in the Yard, and Sony Pictures Classics’ The Penguin Lessons. Additionally, Fathom Events will release The Chosen: Last Supper, showcasing the first two episodes of the acclaimed biblical series’ fifth season, exclusively in theaters.

According to predictions from Gold Derby readers, Snow White is expected to capture the March 28-30 weekend with earnings falling below $25 million domestically, with A Working Man being the anticipated runner-up.

Overview of New Releases

A Working Man
Director: David Ayer
Distributor: Amazon MGM Studios
In this action thriller, Levon Cade, portrayed by Jason Statham, trades his job for a construction career to be a better father. However, when a local girl goes missing, he must tap into his old counter-terrorism skills. The film also stars David Harbour and Michael Peña, has a running time of 1 hour and 56 minutes, and is rated R. Reviews compiled by Metacritic yield a “mixed” reception, with an overall score of 52 percent.

The Woman in the Yard
Director: Jaume Collet-Serra
Distributor: Universal Pictures
A mysterious figure begins to appear in a family’s yard, delivering unsettling warnings that drive them to question her identity and intentions. This horror feature stars Danielle Deadwyler, Okwui Okpokwasili, and Russell Hornsby, and has a running time of 1 hour and 28 minutes, rated PG-13. Rotten Tomatoes’ aggregate shows a “rotten” reception, with a score of 40 percent.

Death of a Unicorn
Director: Alex Scharfman
Distributor: A24
When a father-daughter duo accidentally hits a unicorn with their vehicle, they take the mythical creature to the mansion of a wealthy pharmaceutical executive. This comedy-horror-fantasy film features Paul Rudd, Jenna Ortega, and Will Poulter, runs for 1 hour and 47 minutes, and is rated R. Metacritic’s reviews reflect a “mixed” reception, with an overall score of 55 percent.

The Penguin Lessons
Director: Peter Cattaneo
Distributor: Sony Pictures Classics
This drama chronicles an Englishman’s transformative journey after he adopts a penguin during a tumultuous time in Argentina. Starring Steve Coogan and Jonathan Pryce, the film has a running time of 1 hour and 50 minutes and is rated PG-13. Metacritic reports a “mixed” score of 57 percent.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1
Director: Dallas Jenkins
Distributor: Fathom Events
The film depicts Jesus arriving in Jerusalem and confronting the commercialization of the temple. This theatrical release of the first two episodes from the fifth season of The Chosen stars Jonathan Rouime, Shahar Isaac, and Elizabeth Tabish, runs for 2 hours and 5 minutes, and is not rated. Although there are insufficient professional reviews for a Metacritic or Rotten Tomatoes score, the latter shows an impressive audience rating of 100 percent.

Box-Office Predictions

Snow White aims for a second week at the top, with an expected take of around $20 million, marking a 53% decline from its opening weekend. Following closely is A Working Man, projected to earn approximately $10 million, marking a drop in buzz compared to The Beekeeper, which opened to $16 million last year. Death of a Unicorn is anticipated to finish in third place, with expected earnings between $5 million and $7 million, a significant drop from Jenna Ortega’s previous successes such as Scream and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

The top five rankings are rounded out by The Woman in the Yard and The Chosen: Last Supper — Part 1, both of which are expected to earn under $5 million.

As it stands, Gold Derby’s projected box-office rankings are as follows:

1. Snow White

2. A Working Man

3. Death of a Unicorn

4. The Woman in the Yard

5. The Chosen: Last Supper — Part 1

Do these rankings align with your predictions? We invite you to share your thoughts in our forums.

Source
www.goldderby.com