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As Canadians prepare to vote on Monday, there is growing speculation about whether the issue of sovereignty will take a backseat this federal election, particularly due to pressures from the United States.
Recent Ipsos surveys conducted for Global News throughout the campaign suggest that Quebec’s longstanding separatist sentiment may be overshadowed by a newfound sense of unity with Canada.
The political dynamics in Quebec have shifted significantly in favor of the federal Liberals, especially following U.S. President Donald Trump’s turbulent return to office earlier this year.
In the previous federal election, the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals shared control of Quebec’s 78 seats. However, recent polling indicates a decline in support for the Bloc, with expectations that both the Liberals and Conservatives may pick up additional seats.
Pollster Sebastien Dallaire remarked last week on the considerable influence Trump’s administration is exerting over Canadian voters, potentially leading traditionally blue ridings to lean red.
Some Quebec voters have expressed that their shifting allegiance does not necessarily indicate strong approval of the Liberals but is rather a strategic response to Trump’s threats concerning tariffs and territorial claims.
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In the campaign’s final days, Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet has adjusted his strategy, now suggesting that he anticipates Liberal Leader Mark Carney will emerge as the next prime minister. He aims to persuade voters to grant him a role in balancing power in a potential Liberal minority government.
Latest polling
The latest Ipsos poll, released on Sunday, shows Mark Carney’s Liberal Party with a four-percentage point advantage over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives as the general election approaches.
This close national race, however, conceals the Liberals’ stronger position in key provinces like Ontario and Quebec, which are crucial in determining whether they can secure a fourth consecutive term.
The Ipsos data indicates that the Liberals hold 42 percent of national support, followed by the Conservatives at 38 percent, with the NDP at nine percent and the Bloc Québécois at five percent.
Specifically in Quebec, the Liberals are polling at 40 percent, the Bloc Québécois at 25 percent, the Conservatives at 24 percent, and the NDP at just six percent.
Bloc-held ridings that could flip
Several Bloc-held ridings are now considered competitive, such as Terrebonne, located just north of Montreal, which has historically voted for the Bloc since its inception in 1991. Polling aggregator 338Canada currently rates this riding as a toss-up between the Bloc and the Liberals.
Other areas surrounding Montreal appear to be within the Liberals’ reach, including the potential loss of leader Yves-François Blanchet’s own riding of Beloeil-Chambly.
“These seats are at risk because a trend often leads to simultaneous shifts,” noted Philippe J. Fournier, the creator of 338Canada.
This development could signify a notable transformation in a province where the Bloc has been a significant contender against the Liberals in recent elections, winning 32 seats to the Liberals’ 35 from a total of 78.
While Montreal itself tends to vote Liberal, the suburbs and other regions have historically favored the Bloc. The Conservatives have also been successful in certain seats around Quebec City, while the NDP has dwindled to a single seat in Montreal since 2019.
Poll opening hours
Polls will be open from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time across Quebec on Monday.
In districts that stretch across multiple time zones, such as Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine–Listuguj, polling hours will vary from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. EDT and from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. ADT.
Source
globalnews.ca