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Amidst the serene surroundings of Aggie Chapman’s home in West Deeping, a discussion about the upcoming elections in Lincolnshire took an unexpected turn, transitioning from local environmental concerns to broader anxieties about global geopolitical tensions. Chapman voiced her distress over the state of world affairs, noting, “It’s easy to get caught up in local issues like the quarry, but the fear of world war completely overshadows it.” Her remarks highlighted the impact of international events on everyday citizens, exemplified by her daughter’s experience as a nurse during the pandemic.
Local MP John Hayes, while canvassing with Robert Waltham, the Conservative Party’s candidate for mayor of the newly established Greater Lincolnshire combined county authority, had previously reiterated the adage that “all politics is local.” However, discussions on the doorstep revealed a potential shift in political dynamics, as the Conservatives prepare for a significant challenge from Reform UK, who are contesting over 1,600 government seats across England.
The race for mayor serves as an important indicator of these changing trends and features a competitive field. Waltham is up against Labour’s Jason Stockwood, known for his previous role as chairman of Grimsby Town football club, and Andrea Jenkyns, a former Conservative MP who switched allegiance to Nigel Farage’s Reform party.
The Greater Lincolnshire combined county authority encompasses a diverse electoral landscape, merging traditional Labour strongholds in industrial towns like Scunthorpe with affluent market towns such as Grantham, often frequented by commuters from London. This region’s unique composition paints a microcosm of England’s broader electoral map.
In a predominantly Eurosceptic area, where Reform UK already holds a seat thanks to Richard Tice in Boston, the party’s influence may grow. Nationally, they have been gaining traction, potentially reshaping electoral outcomes even in historically Conservative territories.
An Electoral Calculus poll indicates that while Reform could sweep council seats along the Lincolnshire coast, the Conservatives may retain control of the county council. However, internal Conservative polling reveals a more precarious situation, with competitiveness against Reform especially in Lincolnshire’s south, a region where Kemi Badenoch’s party would typically expect to perform well. With projections showing turnout likely to be at its second-lowest in over a century, the historically higher engagement of rural voters could play a pivotal role in the elections.
Supporters of Waltham like Chapman, a Conservative voter, appreciate his proven leadership within local government. However, there exists palpable skepticism toward Farage’s party, with Chapman remarking, “He terrifies me – he’s just Trump with a British accent.”
Despite reservations about Reform’s influence, the party has effectively resonated with constituents in parts of Lincolnshire, thanks to its critical stance on net zero policies. Many in rural communities express discontent over large-scale renewable energy projects, including planned solar farms and battery sites, indicating a potential shift in voter priorities.
Jenkyns has adopted a proactive approach to her campaign, promising to streamline government processes through a local initiative inspired by a US model aimed at cutting bureaucratic inefficiencies. She has been actively engaging with residents in areas facing opposition to energy projects, including the village of Scopwick, which is threatened by expansive solar farm developments.
Local activists such as Marc Williams are vocal against these projects, arguing that they compromise the rural landscape. Many residents in this area harbor anti-Labour sentiments, criticizing notable figures like Ed Miliband for their policies. Still, Williams, like others, has shifted his support from the Conservatives to Reform due to disillusionment.
As the elections approach, many uncertainties remain. Labour’s potential gain from the preservation of Scunthorpe’s steel plant could influence sentiments, while Jenkyns faces criticism for her links to Leeds, her previous constituency. Reform has labeled allegations regarding her qualifications as unfounded and politically motivated.
Waltham countered these criticisms by emphasizing his local roots and experience in governance, distinguishing himself from Reform candidates who he claims are outsiders. Meanwhile, Conservative insiders express concern over Reform’s growing presence, sharing mixed sentiments about the party’s viability and electoral strategies. One source remarked on the alarming perception of Reform’s polling strength, suggesting a feeling of impending crisis amongst Conservative ranks.
As Lincolnshire gears up for the elections, the outcomes could reflect broader trends in voter sentiment and party loyalty across the UK, marking a critical moment in the evolving political landscape.
Source
www.theguardian.com