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As the United States and Iran gear up for their second round of critical nuclear negotiations in Rome, the optimism for a peaceful resolution is clouded by escalating military threats and ambiguous communications from both parties.
US President Donald Trump has been vocal in reminding Iran of the stark choices available: negotiate a deal or prepare for potential conflict. He has also indicated that, should diplomacy falter, Israel would likely spearhead military action.
Recently, reports from the New York Times suggested that Trump had dismissed an Israeli proposal to target Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future. In a response to inquiries about this development, Trump characterized his stance as one of caution, expressing a preference to exhaust diplomatic avenues first.
“I believe that Iran can become a prosperous nation and live peacefully,” he asserted. “That’s my first hope. The alternative would be detrimental for Iran.” Following the initial round of talks held in Oman, which both sides deemed productive, Trump remarked that a decision regarding Iran would be forthcoming.
Motivations Behind Iran’s Return to Negotiations
In 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear agreement, a pivotal deal in which Iran limited its nuclear program under international scrutiny, in exchange for relief from sanctions. Trump criticized the deal for not sufficiently inhibiting Iran’s potential development of nuclear weapons and initiated a stringent sanctions regimen aimed at forcing Tehran back to the negotiation table.
In retaliation, Iran progressively violated the agreement’s conditions, accumulating a significant stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which it claims it does not intend to weaponize. The fear of military action has been posited as a contributing factor to Iran’s willingness to negotiate, although Iranian officials maintain that their participation stems from the US restricting discussions to nuclear matters alone, rather than fear of attacks.
However, the prospects for a successful agreement remain uncertain. Trump’s Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, emphasized on social media the necessity of framing any agreement to ensure peace and stability, insisting that Iran must dismantle its nuclear enrichment and weaponization programs.
In a previous appearance, he had suggested that Iran might continue to enrich uranium, provided it remains within the limits outlined in the 2015 deal. Witkoff has underscored the importance of rigorous verification measures concerning Iran’s nuclear pursuits.
In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi highlighted inconsistencies in US messaging and affirmed that while Iran is open to building confidence concerning its enrichment activities, the fundamental principle of enrichment is non-negotiable.
Diplomatic Dynamics
The upcoming talks in Rome occur amidst a surge of diplomatic activity. Recently, Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, visited Tehran to convey a message from King Salman to Ayatollah Khamenei and met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran has cautioned that any military action from the US would provoke retaliatory actions against American bases in the region.
Simultaneously, Araghchi traveled to Moscow, where he delivered a letter from Khamenei to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Iran and Russia have been enhancing military cooperation, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where Iran has been implicated in providing drones to assist Russia.
The Russian parliament has recently formalized a long-term strategic alliance with Iran, although this arrangement lacks a mutual defense commitment.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi also made a recent visit to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials, aiming to ease growing tensions and restore inspection processes.
Trust Issues and Negotiation Narratives
Since Trump took office, Ayatollah Khamenei has expressed skepticism towards negotiations with the US, criticizing the Trump administration in several speeches. His mistrust is shaped by the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and ensuing aggressive policies, including the 2020 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani.
Khamenei has stated satisfaction with the first round of discussions but maintained a balanced view, voicing neither excessive optimism nor despair. He previously warned of Iran’s readiness to retaliate in the event of a military strike against its nuclear program, with officials suggesting that such actions could compel Iran to reconsider its stance on nuclear armament.
Nature of the Talks
Differing perspectives exist on the formatting of the negotiations; while the US describes them as direct, Iranian representatives refer to the exchanges as indirect, facilitated through mediation in Oman. After the initial discussion in Muscat, Araghchi disclosed a brief interaction with Witkoff, ostensibly out of diplomatic courtesy.
Conflicting reports on the nature and duration of interactions between the chief negotiators highlight the contrasting priorities of Iran and the US, with Tehran favoring confidentiality while Washington leans towards transparency.
The relatively positive outcomes proclaimed following the first round of talks resulted in notable shifts in Iran’s economy, including a surge in the value of its currency, reflecting public hopes for an alleviation of strenuous economic conditions. The Iranian leadership is acutely aware of the potential for civil unrest stemming from dissatisfaction over economic hardships.
For the Islamic Republic, the stakes extend beyond military threats to encompass concerns over social stability and public dissent.
Source
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