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China Faces Population Decline and Demographic Shift

China’s population has experienced a decline for the third consecutive year, highlighting significant demographic challenges for the nation, now grappling with an aging population alongside a decreasing number of working-age individuals. As reported by the government, the population was approximately 1.408 billion at the close of 2024, reflecting a drop of 1.39 million from 2023.

This trend, observed across many parts of the world, particularly in East Asia, sees countries such as Japan and South Korea facing similar declines in birth rates. Three years ago, China joined this group, witnessing a downturn in its population figures.

The decline is attributed to various factors, chiefly the rising costs associated with living. Young people increasingly prioritize education and career advancement over traditional milestones such as marriage and childbearing. Although life expectancy is on the rise, it has not been sufficient to counterbalance the number of new births.

Countries that restrict immigration, including China, are particularly vulnerable to these demographic trends. Historically, China has maintained a vast population, surviving numerous challenges, including invasions and natural disasters. Following World War II and the establishment of the Communist Party in 1949, family sizes grew significantly, doubling the population within three decades, despite previous losses during events like the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.

The Impact of Policy on Population Dynamics

In response to concerns over population growth outstripping resources, the Chinese government implemented strict population control measures known as the “one-child policy.” Although not formally legislated, this policy required women to obtain permission to conceive, with severe repercussions for noncompliance, including forced abortions and fines. Children born outside these restrictions often faced significant disadvantages, including the risk of being classified as non-citizens.

In rural areas, particularly where there was a strong preference for male children, the government intensified monitoring efforts. Women were subjected to invasive methods of proving their reproductive status, all while propaganda urged families to “have fewer children, have better children.”

Despite attempts to curb gender-selective practices, the availability of legal and safe abortions facilitated an imbalance, leading to a sex ratio where as many as millions more boys are born for every 100 girls. This demographic imbalance raises concerns about social stability, creating a surplus of unmarried men. Recent reports indicate a sex ratio of 104.34 men to every 100 women, although external analyses suggest higher figures.

Concerns Over Future Sustainability

The declining birth rate has raised alarms within the government, particularly after China’s population recorded its first contraction in decades in 2023, leading to India surpassing it as the most populous nation. An aging demographic combined with a shrinking workforce, diminished consumer markets, and emigration challenges the sustainability of China’s socio-economic framework.

While investment in military and infrastructure projects persists, China’s social security system faces increasing strain, with more people opting out of pension contributions, further jeopardizing its viability. Currently, over 20% of the population is aged 60 or older, accounting for roughly 310.3 million individuals. This demographic is projected to exceed 30% by 2035, prompting discussions around raising the retirement age—among the lowest globally. Concurrently, some educational institutions are being repurposed to accommodate elderly care services.

This trend supports the notion that China might “grow old before it grows rich,” posing significant socio-economic challenges ahead. While the government has attempted initiatives to incentivize childbirth, including financial rewards and housing assistance, such measures have yielded limited and temporary results.

Amidst these challenges, China continues to urbanize, with approximately 10 million individuals relocating to cities, resulting in an urbanization rate of 67%, a slight increase from the prior year.

Source
globalnews.ca