Photo credit: hechingerreport.org
Imagine a scenario where colleges proactively reach out to students instead of the traditional approach where students tirelessly apply to numerous schools.
The landscape of college admissions is undergoing a significant transformation. With birth rates on the decline and an increasing skepticism regarding the return on investment of a college degree, higher education institutions are bracing for an enrollment downturn anticipated to peak in 2026. This shift is a direct consequence of the Great Recession two decades ago, which led to a decline in family growth rates.
Faced with fierce competition for prospective students, many states, eager to cultivate local talent, and colleges depending heavily on tuition revenue are now adopting direct admission practices. This innovative approach allows students to receive acceptance offers and scholarship notifications from colleges before submitting their applications.
In a podcast discussion, hosts Kirk Carapezza and Jon Marcus delve into the evolution of the college admission process, which has historically compelled students to invest both time and resources with no assurance of acceptance. They also explore whether this direct admission model is a genuine remedy for the impending enrollment crisis or merely a temporary fix.
Listen to the full series
TRANSCRIPT
[Jon] Welcome to College Uncovered. I’m Jon Marcus.
[Kirk] And I’m Kirk Carapezza.
In the student center of Western New England University, located in Springfield, Massachusetts, students are engaged in various leisure activities. Ndilei Lukulay has paused from her studies to share her experience. She describes how her immigrant mother placed a strong emphasis on the importance of higher education, which added to her anxiety during the college application process.
[Ndilei Lukulay] Given that my mom is an immigrant and highly values education, I felt a tremendous pressure to succeed academically and secure a good career. I was overwhelmed and uncertain about where to begin.
[Kirk] Then, out of the blue, she received an acceptance email from the university in her hometown, accompanied by a scholarship offer, without having even submitted an application. Naturally, her initial reaction was skepticism.
[Ndilei Lukulay] I thought to myself, is this real? Could it be a scam?
[Kirk] But it was indeed genuine. Western New England University, with an enrollment of around 2,000 students, had decided to adopt a direct admission policy, accepting her along with over 2,000 other students based on preset criteria such as GPA and intended major. The university aims to enhance accessibility for low-income students, like Lukulay, who constitute a substantial segment of their student body.
This direct admission method is witnessing growing implementation among colleges as they confront the anticipated demographic cliff that will drastically reduce the number of new college-age students.
[Jon] Regions such as western Massachusetts are particularly impacted, Kirk.
Under this model, colleges communicate to students their eligibility for admission based on certain criteria, allowing them to bypass traditional application components like essays and recommendation letters.
[Ndilei Lukulay] I was astonished to receive direct admission offers from nearly 12 to 15 institutions without having prior knowledge of this process. I was left wondering, is it truly this straightforward?
[Jon] This is College Uncovered, where we aim to clarify the intricacies of the college admissions landscape. I’m Jon Marcus from the Hechinger Report.
[Kirk] …and I’m Kirk Carapezza from GBH News. Through our partnership with the Hechinger Report, we aim to shine a light on the hidden realities of higher education.
This season, we explore the imminent demographic cliff and its effects on the higher education sector. One of the notable changes is how students are granted college admission. What if the stress of applying could be eliminated and instead, colleges reached out to potential students?
Direct admission models are now employed by hundreds of institutions nationwide, with more than a dozen state systems, including those in Oregon, Minnesota, and Connecticut, also participating. Idaho pioneered this approach by establishing a program that ensures all public colleges in the state participate.
[Jennifer Delaney] In Idaho, the initiative was spearheaded by the president of the flagship university, who faced challenges applying to his own institution.
[Kirk] Jennifer Delaney, a higher education policy expert at the University of California, Berkeley, conducted a thorough analysis of Idaho’s direct admissions program, which encompasses all public schools in the state along with a couple of private colleges.
[Jennifer Delaney] The program’s essence is to simplify the admission process and increase overall college enrollment in Idaho. Every public high school student receives admission notifications as long as they meet the GPA criteria, guaranteeing spots at state colleges or open-access institutions like community colleges.
[Jon] This is a transformative approach, Kirk, altering how colleges recruit students. It alleviates the stress of the application process for students, as they know their admission status beforehand. For colleges that rely on tuition for survival, it stands as an opportunity to secure potential enrollees.
[Kirk] Moreover, for states, this tactic aids in retaining local talent and nurturing a more educated workforce. Susan Makowski, Director of Admissions at Rider University in New Jersey, highlighted in an earlier episode that the upcoming enrollment cliff poses significant challenges.
[Susan Makowski] We anticipate a notable decrease in students available for enrollment.
[Kirk] At a college fair in Edison, New Jersey, she noted that Rider was already admitting 80 percent of its applicants before deciding to adopt direct admission practices for students submitting applications via the Common App—a standardized application process used by many institutions.
[Susan Makowski] Different direct admission programs operate with varying criteria for student acceptance. I might suggest they are an excellent fit for Rider, but ultimately, students must determine if they feel the same way. The uncertainty surrounding traditional admissions can be daunting for applicants.
[Jon] That prompts an interesting discussion: does direct admission actually aid colleges like Rider in bolstering their enrollment figures? We’ll explore that soon, but first, let’s examine how the current college admissions model became so complex and anxiety-inducing for students.
[Kirk] It wasn’t always this convoluted.
[Archival newsreel sound] A bipartisan group in Congress recognized the concerns of veterans returning from the military, focusing on employment, education, and housing. This led to the Servicemen’s Readjustment Act of 1944, commonly referred to as the G.I. Bill.
[Kirk] Historically, after World War II, students typically applied to just one college. By the 1970s, that number had increased slightly to two. Fast forward to today, and the average applicant submits applications to seven or more colleges. This shift has created uncertainty for institutions relying on enrollment and increased stress for students and their families. To better understand the motivations behind this admissions process, I spoke with John Burdick, a veteran in the field.
[John Burdick] I’m John Burdick, formerly the vice provost for enrollment at Cornell University until 2023.
[Kirk] After nearly four decades at Cornell, Burdick is now focusing on international college accessibility in Africa, yet retains valuable insights into U.S. admissions practices. I asked him about the origins of the current system.
[John Burdick] It’s a classic arms race. The more rejection letters colleges issue, the higher their perceived prestige, leading students to apply to more institutions in hopes of acceptance.
[Kirk] Burdick suggests that this cycle generates conflicting incentives, pushing students to submit more applications while schools compete for higher application numbers.
[John Burdick] The prestigious institutions often claim not to want increased applications, citing their low acceptance rates. However, they would panic if they suddenly lost their standing as highly selective schools.
[Kirk] Despite the narrative surrounding elite schools, a vast majority—around 80%—of colleges admit over half of their applicants. Yet, the focus on selective admissions dominates the national discourse.
[Jon] It’s true that discussions frequently overshadow the reality: acceptance rates are rising at many institutions. In fact, you have reported that acceptance rates at several colleges are increasing.
[Jon] No doubt, it’s not happening at Ivy League schools, but overall, for the first time in years, a considerable number of universities are admitting a larger share of applicants compared to two decades ago. In 2022, the median acceptance rate at four-year colleges was approximately 8 percentage points higher than in 2012.
[Kirk] Many prospective students perceive the admissions process as increasingly daunting, leading to misconceptions about the actual processes behind the scenes. At a college fair in New Jersey, I posed a question about perceptions of admissions to high school juniors Masiambou Saysay and Harmony Roundtree.
[Masiambou Saysay] There are just numerous applications; they probably scrap some, unsure about which to reject.
[Harmony Roundtree] I envision a disorganized pile of applications being shuffled around, with no real structure in how decisions are made.
[Kirk] I managed to gain insight into the inner workings of admissions by visiting the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, which graciously allowed me to observe one of their early decision committee meetings.
[Jon] So you sat in on a committee meeting at your alma mater?
[Kirk] That’s correct. During this meeting, I observed the rapid assessment of applicants, with each candidate receiving only about two minutes of discussion before decisions on acceptance, waiting, or denial were made. To expedite the process, the committee often utilized jargon such as “LBB” for “late blooming boy” and “RJ” for “rejection.”
[Woman’s voice] Impressive program and testing scores.
[Kirk] Surprisingly, discussions shifted quickly from one candidate to the next, often without a clear rationale beyond their scores and current academic status.
[Jon] Kirk, this observation focused on just one institution. So, to gain a broader perspective, we consulted Jeff Selingo.
[Kirk] Indeed, Selingo, an expert in higher education leadership at Arizona State University, spent a year examining admissions processes at various schools, including Emory University in Atlanta, Davidson College in North Carolina, and the University of Washington in Seattle. When I inquired about the process, he shared his experience.
[Jeff Selingo] Approaching admissions offices is similar to college admissions itself—I contacted 24 schools to secure access to their processes, with only three granting my request.
[Kirk] What common misconceptions did you uncover about admissions offices?
[Jeff Selingo] Many assume admissions officers meticulously review applications, yet the reality is quite different. For example, Emory received around 40,000 applications. Consequently, admissions staff often spend only a few minutes—up to a maximum of twelve or thirteen—per application, all while students invest significant effort in their submissions.
[Kirk] Selingo notes a notable trend: a lack of clarity regarding admission criteria. Post-pandemic, schools that once required standardized test scores have adopted test-optional policies.
[Jeff Selingo] The elimination of standardized testing removes navigational cues previously available to students. Without knowing how scoring impacts their application, there’s a tendency to apply broadly to multiple schools, perpetuating a cycle of anxiety and speculation each admissions season.
[Kirk] How will the impending enrollment cliff impact these trends?
[Jeff Selingo] The competition for students is likely to escalate, fueling the growth of direct admission models. Institutions will expand their outreach strategies, exorbitantly marketing to prospective students even before they become seniors. Additionally, financial incentives for attracting enrollees will become increasingly significant.
[Kirk] With admissions offices feeling the pressure of these substantial changes, is the prevailing atmosphere marked by urgency?
[Jeff Selingo] It’s intriguing. Though the demographic cliff was looming, many colleges remain focused on immediate enrollment challenges rather than long-term planning. Their mindset gravitates toward filling classes year-by-year without adequately preparing for future shifts.
[Kirk] We previously discussed direct admission; how do you view its future?
[Jeff Selingo] I believe we will observe broader adoption of direct admission practices; however, I am cautious about their implications. If numerous institutions begin implementing this approach, how will this inundate prospective students with offers? This could complicate their decision-making process.
[Jon] The impact of direct admission is still a matter of debate. Does it correlate with increased enrollment figures?
[Kirk] Jennifer Delaney’s earlier findings suggest it does have a positive effect on enrollment, as evidenced by Idaho’s pioneering program.
[Jennifer Delaney] Direct admission has not universally resolved enrollment challenges but has led to a 4% increase in full-time undergraduate enrollment and an 8% rise in in-state enrollees.
[Kirk] How has this model benefited low-income students?
[Jennifer Delaney] Simple admission is insufficient; financial feasibility remains critical.
[Kirk] As a result, many institutions are pivoting toward offering financial aid packages up front.
[Jon] There’s a growing trend of both community colleges and universities advertising “free tuition.” We’ve previously discussed this topic in our episode titled “The Real Cost of Free,” available in our second season.
Marykate Agnes, a recipient of direct admission at Western New England University, recounts her experience seeking additional financial support after her initial offer.
[Marykate Agnes] I was awarded a $32,000 scholarship along with an additional $2,000 for early action. After negotiating for more aid, I ended up paying roughly $10,000. It’s an incredible support system that alleviates student pressures.
[Jon] Agnes conveys that she doesn’t feel any stigma regarding attending a less prestigious institution.
[Marykate Agnes] I genuinely believe the quality of education remains unaffected. At the end of the semester, I often find my coursework more demanding than that of friends attending supposedly more prestigious schools, and the personalized attention from professors enriches my learning experience.
[Kirk] Such developments are prompting colleges to shift their strategies. Professionals like Kathy Ruby assist institutions in evolving their financial aid frameworks to retain appealing candidates.
[Kathy Ruby] The landscape is growing fierce, and institutions will experience varying degrees of competition based on their specific circumstances.
[Kirk] Ruby points out that families are increasingly conscious of costs. With student debt concerns at the forefront, colleges are adapting to market conditions by appearing more affordable to attract families with middle incomes—those who may not qualify for significant federal support yet are unable to afford full tuition.
[Kathy Ruby] Many colleges are focusing on how to best support these middle-income families, recognizing this demographic can be a nurturing ground for enrollment growth. Navigating this segment can be resource-intensive without federal assistance.
[Kirk] Institutions are prioritizing scholarships to meet financial needs more effectively. Ruby encourages families to build a balanced college list that incorporates reach, target, and safety schools while being aware of implications on financial aid.
[Kathy Ruby] It’s crucial for students to thoroughly investigate their potential colleges by utilizing their websites, net price calculators, and direct communication with admissions staff.
[Jon] Finally, as we emphasize throughout this podcast, it’s vital to ask questions to fully comprehend potential financial aid packages, even if exact numbers are initially unclear.
[Kirk] Numerous options exist for students eager for strong educational programs. It’s essential to shift the fixation on institutional prestige and recognize colleges’ broader admission agendas, which hinge on various factors like demographics and financial viability.
[Jon] It’s all too common to believe that exclusivity is the ultimate safeguard for a student’s future success. However, as we face the demographic cliff, it’s becoming apparent that the reverse is true—many students now find themselves in a favorable position.
[Kirk] This has been College Uncovered. I’m Kirk Carapezza from GBH.
[Jon] And I’m Jon Marcus from the Hechinger Report.
[Kirk] This episode’s development and writing were led by Jon Marcus.
[Jon] The editing process was coordinated by Jonathan A. Davis.
Executive editing was provided by Jennifer McKim.
[Kirk] Our fact-checking was managed by Ryan Alderman.
Audio mixing and design were conducted by David Goodman and Gary Mott.
Our theme music is by Left Roman, a college band from MIT, with contributions from various artists.
The sound design related to the demographic cliff was provided by James Trayford from the Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation at the University of Portsmouth.
Mei He serves as our project manager, while Devin Maverick Robbins oversees GBH Podcasts.
This season’s production of College Uncovered was made possible through the generous support of Lumina Foundation, and it remains a collaborative endeavor between GBH News and the Hechinger Report, with distribution through PRX.
We appreciate your engagement with our program.
For additional insights on the subjects we’ve covered in this session:
Explore more about direct admission here.
Check out participating colleges and universities offering direct admission through the Common App.
Listen to the College Uncovered episode: The Real Cost of Free.
Discover why it’s becoming progressively easier to gain college admission.
Source
hechingerreport.org