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In the realm of Canadian politics, one phrase echoes persistently: campaigns matter. This belief is echoed by analysts, academics, and even casual observers at coffee shops. Most of the time, they are correct.
However, the dynamics have shifted considerably.
If traditional indicators were still effective in 2025, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party would be preparing for a transition to the Prime Minister’s Office. Their campaign has exhibited characteristics traditionally associated with successful outcomes. The advertisements are sharp and persistent, the messaging is consistent, and the campaign has avoided major gaffes and scandals. The enthusiasm at their rallies resembles the fervor of a popular concert rather than the mundane gatherings of party members, marking a stark contrast to their competitors.
In contrast, Mark Carney and the Liberals are running a campaign that might be generously termed as “measured.” Under closer scrutiny, it can be described as lacking vigor. While Carney is highly respected and possesses considerable credentials, his strengths do not translate seamlessly into the realm of campaigning. He shines in global forums but appears somewhat out of place in smaller local settings.
The Liberal campaign seems to lack urgency and excitement, akin to wallpaper that is hardly noticed. It is neither fiercely rejected nor warmly embraced, making it easily overlooked.
Despite these setbacks, the surprising reality is that the Liberals are not only remaining competitive; they are currently leading. Recent polling by Ipsos indicates they hold a six-point advantage over the Conservatives, even peaking at 46 percent—marking their best performance in this campaign before settling at 42 percent. In parallel, the Conservatives have seen a slight rise to 36 percent. While the gap is narrowing, it remains significant.
This outcome defies traditional expectations, illustrating that the conventional understanding of a campaign’s effectiveness has transformed. We are witnessing a new political landscape characterized by unpredictability. Voter loyalty has diminished, and identities appear more fragmented than ever. Today’s political engagement resembles a marketplace rather than a community gathering, marked by transient choices and emotional attachments rather than steadfast allegiance.
In this contemporary political climate, we are not merely witnessing campaigns; we are experiencing a kind of political speed dating.
This brings us to a fundamental contradiction: campaigns still carry weight, but not in the previously established linear fashion. In the current environment, the emphasis is not on coherently strengthening messages over extended periods but on capturing attention during the critical final hours.
If there remains a consistent rule in modern elections, it is that late shifts can determine the outcome.
Historically, voters would solidify their choices early, with campaigns aimed at reinforcing these decisions. Those times are fading. Voters now keep their options open until the very end, with Ipsos polls revealing that a notable number—up to 10 percent—finalize their decisions on Election Day itself. In a closely contested race, such last-minute decisions can be pivotal.
Additionally, traditional polling often fails to capture these last-minute shifts. Typically, polling concludes just before voting begins, and under existing Canadian law, media outlets cannot release new polling data on Election Day. This results in a data blackout during a crucial period where voter sentiment may pivot dramatically.
Debates, once considered pivotal, hold a different weight in the current climate. They can still influence dynamics if someone significantly falters or shines, but often they result in indifference as viewers come with pre-formed opinions and analysts have their commentary set before the debates conclude.
So, do campaigns hold importance? Indeed, but the significance lies predominantly in the final moments rather than the preceding weeks. Do debates impact outcomes? Occasionally, but only when they manage to penetrate the noise of routine media consumption.
At present, momentum emerges as the key to success—not the type that can be meticulously planned, but rather the unexpected shifts that gradually evolve in everyday conversations and among undecided voters.
Consequently, while Poilievre may be narrowing the distance, and Carney may seem to have plateaued, this does not reaffirm the relevance of established campaign strategies. Instead, it underscores the importance of timing and the realization that decisions often materialize late in the electoral process.
Both leaders still have viable paths to victory, but this election will not hinge on policy platforms, expert commentary, or average polling results.
Ultimately, it will be determined by an electorate grappling with indecision. The final verdict looms on the horizon, approaching rapidly.
Darrell Bricker is Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs
Source
globalnews.ca