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00:00 Speaker A
Today, I’d like to discuss recent findings concerning consumer confidence, specifically noting a decline for the fifth consecutive month in April, bringing the index down to 86. This figure was below economists’ expectations, which had estimated a reading of 88. Notably, the present situation index came in at 133.5, slightly lower than the previous month’s value, while expectations saw a more pronounced drop to 54.4 from 65.2. To help us unpack this information, I’m joined in the studio by Yelena Shulyatyeva, the senior US economist at the Conference Board. Welcome, Yelena. What stands out to you in this report?
00:55 Yelena Shulyatyeva
A significant takeaway is that expectations are at their lowest point in 13 years. Consumers are indicating concerns about job availability, reflecting a heightened level of worry. This index, which measures expectations for fewer job opportunities, is currently the highest it’s been since the Great Recession. The survey was conducted during a period of intense uncertainty, particularly around the recent tariffs, which seem to have surprised consumers. They are genuinely concerned about the impact these tariffs may have on their financial situations and employment prospects.
02:24 Speaker A
Indeed, there’s a striking statistic from this report: 32.1% of consumers anticipate fewer job opportunities in the coming six months. This figure approaches levels seen in April 2009, during the depths of the Great Recession.
02:45 Yelena Shulyatyeva
Absolutely. This is quite alarming, and it underscores their concerns regarding personal finances. Referring to the JOLTS data you mentioned earlier, it’s noteworthy that the job openings rate has dropped to 4.3%, which is critical. A rate below 4.5% is often indicative of more significant increases in the unemployment rate, suggesting potential economic challenges ahead.
03:49 Speaker A
Despite these concerning indicators, we see stock markets rallying. How do you interpret this? Do you believe that the narrative of consumer resilience over the past four years may be overly optimistic, particularly among investors? Can this resilience persist in light of the softer data?
04:13 Yelena Shulyatyeva
Indeed, that draws a contrast between soft data and hard data. The real concern will emerge when the hard data starts declining. That’s when we are likely to see more significant reactions.
Source
finance.yahoo.com