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Exploring the Connection Between the Doomsday Clock and Public Health

Research indicates a correlation between the rising urgency of the Doomsday Clock and increasing mortality rates linked to conditions such as Alzheimer’s disease, suicide, unintentional injuries, and substance-related disorders.

Since its inception in 1947, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) has employed the Doomsday Clock metaphor to convey how close humanity is to self-destruction, symbolized by midnight. Initially, the focus was primarily on the threats posed by nuclear weapons. However, over the years, the BAS has expanded its scope to recognize additional, evolving existential threats, such as climate change, technological disruptions, cyber risks, and political instability. The prominence and contentious nature of the Doomsday Clock are well-known, yet its potential relationship with health and mortality rates had not been previously investigated.

A recent study conducted by researchers at Mass General Brigham has delved into the relationship between the mortality and mental health outcomes associated with the Doomsday Clock. Utilizing data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME 2023), the research marks a preliminary effort to determine how the clock relates to human health and mental wellbeing. This inquiry aims to initiate broader discussions about the impact of social determinants of health (SDOH) on individual and collective health outcomes. The findings are published in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

“This study is a preliminary step, with its own limitations, but it reveals a potential link between global existential threats, our mental state, and our health,” stated Samuel Justin Sinclair, PhD, who is the lead author and director at the Psychological Assessment and Research Service (PARSe) at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. “While this may seem intuitive, it is a relationship that has not been previously explored. We hope this paves the way for more in-depth discussions.”

The findings indicate that as the Doomsday Clock approaches midnight (suggesting increased peril), there is an observed rise in mortality rates associated with Alzheimer’s disease, suicide, unintentional injuries, as well as alcohol and substance use disorders. In contrast, the study also identified a decline in mortality rates for certain conditions such as malignant neoplasms, HIV, and diabetes mellitus as the clock nears midnight.

The authors contribute that the results highlight a possible link between heightened societal risks and fluctuations in health outcomes, suggesting that socio-political indicators like the Doomsday Clock can effectively encapsulate broader social determinants of health on a macro scale.

“The health and functioning of individuals and societies, along with international relations and the overall wellbeing of our planet, are interconnected,” explained David Silbersweig, MD, the senior author and chairman emeritus of the BWH Department of Psychiatry. “Further research can explore these intricate, multifaceted interactions to tackle significant global challenges and shape informed policy decisions.”

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