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India Faces Unprecedented Heat and Its Impact on Agriculture and Business
Recent data from India’s meteorological agency highlights that February 2024 marked the hottest February in the country in 125 years. Rising temperatures are transforming the landscape of agriculture and small businesses, prompting serious concerns among farmers and manufacturers alike.
Nitin Goel, who has been in the clothing manufacturing business in Ludhiana for over 50 years, now finds himself grappling with an early summer that has disrupted his traditional operations. Historically focused on winter wear, Goel’s company is witnessing a dramatic decline in sales. “We’ve had to pivot towards making t-shirts instead of sweaters, reflecting a concerning trend of shorter winters,” he reported. Over the past five years, sales have halved and declined further by 10% this season alone.
With cool weather retreating, anxiety looms over both agricultural fields and business settings. Retail clients are reportedly shying away from confirmed orders due to soaring temperatures, a sign of shifting purchasing behaviors influenced by climate change.
The Indian Meteorological Department has predicted that the trend of above-average temperatures will likely continue, with heatwaves expected in various regions from March through May. For small manufacturers like Goel, this erratic weather is not just causing a slowdown; it is necessitating a complete overhaul of established business models.
Goel’s enterprise, which supplies garments to multi-brand outlets nationwide, is now facing altered payment terms. Retailers are switching to a “sale or return” policy, where unsold items can be returned, effectively shifting the risk back to manufacturers. Additionally, Goel has to provide larger discounts and incentives amidst a climate where even established retailers are hesitant to purchase, resulting in some local competitors shutting down.
The Agricultural Fallout
Meanwhile, nearly 1,200 miles away in Devgad, the heat has impacted the renowned Alphonso mango orchards critically. Farmer Vidyadhar Joshi indicated that this year’s production could plummet to just 30% of the normal yield. “We might incur losses this year,” Joshi said, which he attributes to the necessity of increased spending on irrigation and fertilizers to try and salvage his crops. Some farmers have even started sending laborers back home due to diminished workload.
The agricultural sector is not only feeling the heat on mango production; staple crops such as wheat, chickpeas, and rapeseed are also at risk. Although government officials remain optimistic about a predicted bumper wheat harvest, experts from various think tanks suggest otherwise. Past heatwaves have already led to considerable yield reductions, and the same could occur this year.
As concerns about water availability grow, especially with reservoir levels currently at 28% capacity—down from 37% last year—pressure mounts on agricultural outputs. The decline in water resources could also affect the dairy industry, which has reported milk production decreases of up to 15% in some regions. Economists warn that such trends may exacerbate inflation, reversing any recent gains in price stabilization.
The Broader Economic Implications
The resilient GDP growth exhibited by India could be compromised if these agricultural disruptions continue. Analysts note a shift in urban spending patterns paired with a slowdown in private investments, raising fears that a faltering agricultural sector could derail economic recovery efforts.
In light of these challenges, think tanks advocate for the implementation of urgent measures to mitigate the fallout from recurrent heatwaves. These include enhancing weather forecasting capabilities, developing agricultural insurance programs, and reevaluating cropping calendars with new climate models to bolster yield resilience.
India’s role as an agrarian power means that its vulnerability to climate change is significant; estimates indicate that up to 75% of Indian districts qualify as “extreme event hotspots.” Furthermore, research suggests that by 2030, the country could see a loss of about 5.8% of daily working hours due to heat stress, translating into a potential economic hit of $159 billion in 2021—a staggering 5.4% of GDP.
The Path Forward
Looking ahead, India must confront the serious threats posed by rising temperatures. Without decisive action, the specter of recurring heatwaves could jeopardize both lives and economic stability, making a comprehensive response critical for the future of the nation.
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