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A Colorado low is currently moving through the Great Lakes region, unleashing a variety of weather conditions across Ontario on Wednesday. Following the ice storm that impacted over 150,000 customers this past weekend, residents are now experiencing freezing rain and snowfall. The Golden Horseshoe region, in particular, has reported incidents of ice pellets, snow, and even the unusual phenomenon known as thundersnow.
Strong winds combined with heavy snowfall have led to hazardous driving conditions, resulting in low visibility on major roads. Notably, Highway 6, located north of the 403, was closed on Wednesday following reports of sliding transport trucks and trapped vehicles.
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While the ice and snow began to clear out of the Golden Horseshoe by Wednesday afternoon, there remains a risk for icy conditions into the evening and overnight hours across eastern Ontario, particularly in the Ottawa area.
However, the spotlight will shift to a potential thunderstorm risk for southern Ontario overnight, raising concerns about localized flooding.
Severe Storm Risk Grows in Southwestern Ontario
A cold front moving from the west is expected to enter southwestern Ontario by Wednesday evening, triggering a chance for thunderstorms in the region. The greatest likelihood of severe storms is in areas near the Michigan border.
Thunderstorm predictions for Ontario on Wednesday indicate:
The waters of the Great Lakes may temper the intensity of some storms, thus the highest threat is concentrated in extreme southwestern Ontario—including cities like Windsor, Leamington, Chatham, and extending up to Sarnia.
These storms are predicted to be convective with a higher likelihood of lightning after dark.
Forecast for overnight lightning potential in Southern Ontario – April 2, 2025
Winds are forecasted to shift from the northeast to the south in the evening, with peak gusts potentially reaching speeds of 50-70 km/h, and up to 80 km/h along exposed shorelines.
The predominant risks associated with the strongest storms include high-speed winds and significant rainfall. There remains a small possibility of tornado development if sufficient energy travels from Michigan into southwestern Ontario.
Projected radar precipitation for Southern Ontario on Wednesday evening – April 2, 2025
Rainfall estimates indicate 30-60 mm of heavy rain in areas where the most intense storms are expected—from Windsor to Hamilton.
Looking ahead to Thursday, following the passage of the storm system, a significant warm-up is anticipated, likely catching residents off guard with the abrupt shift in temperatures.
Severe Weather Threat Extends to the U.S.
The thunderstorm danger facing Ontario is just the northern edge of a more extensive severe thunderstorm outbreak poised to affect millions in the United States on Wednesday.
The severe weather threat encompasses an area impacting nearly 100 million people in the U.S., with hazardous thunderstorms forecast from central Texas all the way up to western New York. Travelers can expect dangerous conditions on highways and significant disruption to airline schedules across numerous major airports.
These severe thunderstorms are capable of producing wind gusts exceeding 120 km/h, hail the size of golf balls, and even tornadoes.
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According to the U.S. Storm Prediction Center, there is a potential for a tornado outbreak in certain regions. The Center has issued a high risk warning—level five out of five—for parts of the Mid-South, including Memphis, Tennessee.
SPC convective outlook for eastern U.S. – April 2, 2025
The SPC emphasized that “numerous tornadoes, alongside several long-track EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely” in the areas under high risk as noted in their forecast.
Issuing a high-risk warning is a rare occurrence and usually denotes extreme confidence in the potential for severe weather; the SPC typically only designates one or two of these high-risk days per year. As of now, Wednesday marks only the 67th high-risk day recorded in the United States since January 1, 2000.
The risk of significant flooding will also escalate through the weekend, affecting many of the same locales expecting severe storms on Wednesday. The U.S. Weather Prediction Center cautioned that “a prolonged life-threatening flash flood event will begin today with heavy rainfall impacting a large section of the Lower Mississippi and Ohio valleys.”
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