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Iranian-Backed Militias in Iraq Consider Disarmament Amid U.S. Pressure

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – In a significant shift, several influential Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq are contemplating disarmament for the first time to mitigate the risk of escalating conflicts with the Trump administration, according to insights from 10 high-ranking commanders and Iraqi officials.

This move towards reducing tensions comes in response to a series of private warnings from U.S. officials directed at the Iraqi government since the beginning of Trump’s presidency in January. Informed sources, including six local commanders from four major militia factions, indicate that the U.S. has made it clear that without the disbandment of these militias, airstrikes may be employed against them.

Izzat al-Shahbndar, a senior Shi’ite Muslim politician associated with Iraq’s ruling coalition, noted to Reuters that discussions between Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and several militia leaders are “very advanced.” He expressed optimism about the groups’ willingness to meet U.S. demands for disarmament, stating, “The factions are not acting stubbornly or insisting on continuing in their current form,” and emphasizing their awareness of the potential U.S. response.

The commanders involved, who spoke under conditions of anonymity, represent factions such as Kataib Hezbollah, Nujabaa, Kataib Sayyed al-Shuhada, and Ansarullah al-Awfiyaa. One commander from Kataib Hezbollah, recognized as the most powerful Shi’ite militia, remarked on the increased likelihood of conflict escalation, stating, “Trump is ready to take the war with us to worse levels, we know that, and we want to avoid such a bad scenario.”

Reportedly, their primary backer, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), has sanctioned the militias to make decisions deemed necessary to avoid confrontation with the U.S. and Israel. The militias represent the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an amalgam of approximately 10 hardline Shi’ite factions that collectively claim about 50,000 fighters and possess various weaponry, including long-range missiles and anti-aircraft systems.

Since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict around 18 months ago, these groups have claimed responsibility for numerous missile and drone strikes targeting U.S. forces as well as Israel. In light of the disarmament discussions, Farhad Alaaeldin, Sudani’s adviser on foreign affairs, indicated that the prime minister aims to bring all weapons under state control through “constructive dialogue with various national actors.”

The Iraqi government’s push for disarmament is particularly directed at the militias that claim allegiance to the IRGC or Quds Force rather than the Iraqi state. Reports suggest that some militia factions have begun to withdraw from their strongholds in major cities, including Mosul and Anbar, amid fears of potential airstrikes.

In the wake of these developments, militia commanders have heightened their security protocols, frequently changing their phones, vehicles, and residences. The U.S. State Department continues to advocate for Baghdad to restrain the militias, emphasizing that they should respond to Iraq’s central command rather than Iranian influence.

Despite these ongoing discussions, skepticism persists regarding the long-term viability of any disarmament. An American official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, pointed out that previous instances of the militias halting attacks in response to U.S. pressure did not result in lasting disarmament.

Shahbndar elaborated that there is as yet no finalized agreement with militant leaders, with discussions regarding disarmament mechanisms still underway. Potential strategies include transforming the militias into political parties and integrating them into Iraq’s official armed forces. The current climate indicates that while the possibility of disarmament is being explored, the actual implementation remains uncertain.

The Iraqi government’s initiative comes at a critical juncture for Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” a network that has historically countered U.S. and Israeli interests but is facing significant challenges following the escalation of violence after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The standing of Iranian allies, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, has notably weakened under sustained military pressure.

Iraq’s leadership is grappling with the task of balancing its relations with both the United States and Iran while managing the complex presence of militias that emerged with Iranian support following the 2003 U.S. invasion. These militias have grown in strength, often challenging the Iraqi national army in terms of military prowess.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently urged Prime Minister Sudani to prevent militia-led retaliation against Israel and U.S. interests after the initiation of U.S. airstrikes against Houthi targets. Iraqi-based militias have actively launched drone and rocket attacks against Israel in solidarity with Hamas since the outbreak of the Gaza war, and have targeted U.S. personnel, contributing to a tense regional atmosphere.

Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie, a former advisor to Sudani, warned that the U.S. may insist on compliance with disarmament expectations more aggressively this time, stating, “If we do not voluntarily comply, it may be forced upon us from the outside, and by force.”

As Iraq navigates this precarious landscape, the outcome of ongoing discussions into the future of these militias remains a pivotal concern, reflecting the broader complexities of regional security and foreign influence.

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