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Forecast of Rain for Coachella Valley: A Look Ahead

Starting Thursday night, the Coachella Valley is expected to experience heavy rainfall, which may evoke memories of the 2019 Valentine’s Day storm that led to substantial flooding. However, the rainfall projections this time are significantly lower than the quantities observed six years ago.

Initial rain is expected to begin on Thursday, with lighter precipitation likely in areas west of the mountains a bit earlier in the day.

According to the National Weather Service, the Coachella Valley is forecasted to receive between 0.3 to 0.8 inches of rain, with Palm Springs and other western cities likely to experience more rainfall compared to those in the southern and eastern parts of the valley. The most significant rainfall is anticipated from Thursday night into Friday morning, with the storm expected to clear by Friday night.

Notably, images from the 2019 event show water cascading over Highway 111 at Chino Creek in Palm Springs, where much heavier rain led to severe flooding.

Meteorologist Philip Gonsalves from the weather service remarked, “This season’s preceding weather patterns have resulted in milder rainfall totals. What we are expecting aligns more closely with what is typical for early February.”

He indicated that while there may be some localized flooding in low-lying areas, particularly around Whitewater Canyon, the expected rainfall might not be severe enough to cause widespread flood issues.

During the Valentine’s Day storm of 2019, Palm Springs received a staggering 3.69 inches of rain, leading to extensive flooding that caused closures of Highway 243 and Highway 74 for many months. This event resulted in approximately months-long highway closures and around $1.9 million in damage to Palm Springs alone.

The 2019 rain was classified as a 25-year storm, indicating a 4% annual chance of occurrence.

The impending storm may not even meet the criteria for an atmospheric river effect upon its arrival in the Coachella Valley.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an atmospheric river is characterized as a narrow region of the atmosphere that transports moisture equivalent to the average water flow at the mouth of the Mississippi River, which is approximately 593,003 cubic feet per second.

Gonsalves commented, “This system lacks the defining traits of an atmospheric river. While it will bring a notable amount of moisture, its duration and impact over distance will not be as pronounced.”

Reflecting on recent weather events, the remnants of Hurricane Hilary contributed approximately 3.2 inches of rain in Palm Springs earlier this year, marking a summer record for the area.

For historical reference, the wettest day recorded in Palm Springs was on December 10, 1943, when nearly 4.6 inches of rain fell at the airport.

This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Palm Springs area weather forecast: Heavy rain ahead of Valentine’s Day

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