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OCALA, Fla. — The special elections taking place on Tuesday for two congressional seats in Florida’s strongly pro-Trump districts have sparked unexpected anxiety among national Republicans. This comes as Democrats have invested substantial financial resources into the contests, reportedly raising millions for their candidates in a bid to flip these seats.
Both congressional positions became vacant when President Donald Trump appointed their previous occupants to roles in his administration. Specifically, Matt Gaetz was considered for attorney general but ultimately declined, while Mike Waltz accepted a position as national security adviser.
Randy Fine, a Florida state senator, is vying for Waltz’s seat, while Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, is running to fill Gaetz’s position. Both candidates are presumed to have an advantage in their traditionally conservative districts, which would secure Republicans a 220 to 213 lead in the House of Representatives. However, both Fine and Patronis have faced challenges in fundraising compared to their Democratic opponents, prompting concerns among party leaders about potential underperformance.
Fine has aligned himself closely with Trump; he shared a message from the former president urging support for his campaign. Trump’s endorsement emphasized Fine as a strong advocate for conservative values.
Typically, special elections tend to draw lower voter turnout, leading to unpredictable outcomes. Any deviation from overwhelming victories for the Republican candidates could signal significant shifts in voter sentiment.
In the last general election, Gaetz secured his position in Florida’s 1st Congressional District with a substantial lead of 32 percentage points, while Waltz won the 6th Congressional District, which encompasses some of Florida’s most conservative areas, by 33 percentage points.
Both Fine and Patronis have seen their fundraising efforts eclipsed by their Democratic rivals. Gay Valimont has amassed approximately $6.5 million in donations compared to just $2.1 million for Patronis. Meanwhile, Josh Weil has raised about $9 million for his campaign, overshadowing Fine’s $1 million.
Democrats attribute their growing financial support to grassroots initiatives that reflect voter discontent with recent government actions during the initial months of Trump’s second term.
This late surge in donations is intensifying pressure on Fine, a self-identified conservative firebrand who resides outside the district he aims to represent. He disclosed that he has personally invested $600,000 into his campaign.
Fine is recognized for his staunch support for Israel along with his opposition to LGBTQ+ rights. In recent legislative sessions, he has found himself at odds with Governor Ron DeSantis, criticizing the governor’s actions and remarks on various topics.
DeSantis, who previously held the 6th Congressional District seat before ascending to the governorship, expressed skepticism about Fine’s ability to meet expectations, suggesting that the results would reflect more on Fine as a candidate than on Trump’s influence.
“It’s hard for a Republican to lose in this district, so I still expect a Republican victory,” DeSantis remarked.
Weil, on the other hand, positions himself as a progressive educator and single father. Previously, he ran for a U.S. Senate seat, ultimately withdrawing from a packed Democratic primary before it concluded.
During a recent campaign rally, Weil expressed his gratitude to supporters and highlighted the importance of community involvement in his effort to secure a position in Congress.
The gathering, comprised of a diverse mix of volunteers, veterans, and even Republicans, showcased enthusiastic support for Weil’s candidacy with signs proclaiming “A Teacher Representing You.”
Richard Hudson, a North Carolina representative and chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, acknowledged that Fine could have improved his fundraising strategy earlier in the race, but he expressed confidence in Fine’s capability to come out on top.
“I’m not worried about the margins,” Hudson stated. “Special elections carry their own dynamics.”
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