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Projected Decline in International Travel to the U.S. Amidst Political Tensions

Concerns regarding the Trump administration’s tariffs and rhetoric are anticipated to exacerbate the decline in international travel to the United States, according to insights from a prominent travel forecasting organization released on Tuesday.

Tourism Economics has revised its projections, now estimating a 9.4% decrease in foreign arrivals in the U.S. for this year—a significant increase from its previous forecast of a 5% drop made in February.

Earlier in the year, the same organization had predicted a robust increase in international visits, expecting a growth of 9% compared to 2024.

Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, pointed to recent high-profile detentions of European tourists at U.S. borders as a key factor impacting the perception of travel safety and accessibility. Additionally, discontent over tariffs and the administration’s hostile stance towards Canada and Greenland, as well as contentious interactions such as the exchange with Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, are also contributing to the discouragement of potential visitors.

“The series of policy decisions and public statements from the administration represent a cascade of avoidable mistakes that adversely influence international travel to the U.S.,” Sacks remarked. “Each development has a tangible effect.”

This decline in travel stands to affect multiple sectors reliant on tourism, including airlines, hotels, and attractions such as national parks.

Tourism Economics forecasts a staggering 20% drop in travel from Canada this year, a reduction that will particularly impact border states like New York and Michigan, as well as major tourist hotspots including California, Nevada, and Florida.

The U.S. Travel Association has similarly expressed concerns about the likelihood of Canadians avoiding travel to the U.S. A reduction of just 10% in Canadian visitation could translate to a loss of 2 million visits, $2.1 billion in spending, and approximately 14,000 job opportunities, according to estimates provided by the association in February.

In a recent shareholder meeting, Air Canada noted a 10% decline in flight bookings to the U.S. for the April to September segment compared to the previous year, which further highlights the travel industry’s declining performance.

Sacks predicts that international visitors will spend $9 billion less in the U.S. this year compared to 2024, underscoring a significant downturn from the previous year’s 9.1% growth in tourism.

He points out the paradox in the administration’s trade policies, stating, “The tariffs, which are intended to address the trade deficit, are paradoxically undermining the trade balance by deterring international travelers who could contribute economically.”

Initially, international arrivals were on track to rebound to pre-pandemic levels by 2029. However, current trends suggest that this recovery timeline has been pushed back significantly.

Source
www.yahoo.com