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ORLANDO, FL – The Atlantic Ocean witnessed the emergence of a fourth tropical disturbance early Saturday morning, prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to monitor its potential developments as the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season progresses.
This article provides an overview of the active systems and their likelihood of development over the upcoming week.
Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon)
The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are continuing to dissipate in the Atlantic. The NHC has reported that strong upper-level winds are restricting the formation of showers and thunderstorms around the low-pressure area.
Currently, the chances of this disturbance developing further stand at a mere 10% over the next week, with a slow northwestward drift predicted.
Central Subtropical Atlantic (Invest 96L)
Another low-pressure system located in the central subtropical Atlantic is generating some precipitation; however, the NHC suggests that the environmental conditions are not conducive for development. This disturbance also currently holds a 10% chance of evolving over the next seven days.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico
The NHC has recently boosted the development odds of a potential tropical disturbance forming in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, which is expected to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico in the near future.
Forecasts indicate that a broad low-pressure area may emerge between early and mid-next week over the northwestern Caribbean and surrounding parts of Central America. As it transitions into the Gulf, an area marked by record-high ocean temperatures and low wind shear, conditions appear favorable for the formation of a tropical depression by late next week.
Even if this system does not develop into a tropical cyclone, it is anticipated to result in significant rainfall across parts of Central America in the coming days, with the current chance of development set at 60% for the next week.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic
A tropical wave is forecasted to progress westward from the African coast on Sunday or Monday. The potential for this disturbance to develop gradually is present; it currently has a 30% chance of development over the next week.
Source
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