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North Korea’s Growing Influence in the Ukraine Conflict
Recent developments have highlighted North Korea’s involvement in the ongoing war in Ukraine, particularly following a statement from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy regarding a missile strike in Kyiv that claimed the lives of 12 individuals. Zelenskyy disclosed that the missile in question may have originated from North Korea.
“Preliminary information suggests that the Russians employed a ballistic missile manufactured in North Korea,” stated Zelenskyy. “Our intelligence agencies are currently investigating the specifics of this incident.”
The Ukrainian leader emphasized that if the missile’s North Korean origin is verified, it would serve as further evidence of the illicit partnership between Russia and Pyongyang.
The missile identified as the North Korean KN-23 reportedly impacted a residential area in the Sviatoshynskyi district of Kyiv early Thursday morning. This incident underscores a significant pattern of Russia turning to North Korea for military aid, particularly in the form of personnel, ammunition, and crucial military hardware.
Despite Moscow and Pyongyang denying allegations of troops being dispatched to aid Russian efforts in the Kursk region last fall and denying any violations of United Nations sanctions, analysts have pieced together a clearer understanding of North Korea’s involvement through various means, including satellite imagery and intercepted communications.
North Korea has been supplying an array of military equipment, including numerous artillery shells, multiple-launch rocket systems, and long-range artillery, with ballistic missiles notably deployed against Ukrainian targets since the latter part of 2023.
Reports from Ukraine’s military intelligence indicate that by the beginning of this year, North Korea had delivered 148 KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles, the same type that was likely responsible for the recent attack on Kyiv that injured around 90 individuals.
The KN-23 missiles come equipped with warheads weighing up to one tonne, making them more formidable than comparable Russian missiles, according to a Ukrainian military source.
Furthermore, a collaborative investigation conducted by Reuters and the Open Source Centre revealed that millions of North Korean artillery shells have been transported to the frontlines via maritime and rail routes.
The joint study tracked 64 shipments executed by a specialized fleet of Russian munitions carriers over nearly two years, revealing close to 16,000 containers filled with artillery rounds aimed at Ukrainian positions. One such shipment occurred as recently as March 17.
The OSC reported that their analysis of satellite imagery and three-dimensional models of the vessels indicates that since September 2023, North Korea has dispatched more than 15,000 containers likely containing upwards of 4 million artillery shells and rockets, potentially valued in the billions of dollars.
The assistance provided by North Korean munitions has significantly bolstered Russia’s military capabilities since the conflict erupted in February 2022. Analysts estimate that North Korean supplies may constitute as much as 70% of the munitions utilized by Russian artillery forces.
Experts, including Hugh Griffiths, a former UN sanctions monitor for North Korea, have remarked on the strategic importance of North Korean support. He noted, “Without the backing of Chairman Kim Jong-un, President Vladimir Putin would struggle to sustain military efforts in Ukraine.”
While some of the munitions supplied by North Korea are older or surplus stock, they also include newer weaponry that has been actively tested in the ongoing conflict. A recent report from 38 North, a think tank focusing on North Korea, catalogued a diverse array of artillery shells and self-propelled guns sent to Russian forces.
Experts like Tianran Xu have noted that North Korea is seeking to offload its aging military hardware while simultaneously providing Russia with advanced weaponry capable of enhancing attack strategies—an opportunity for North Korea to assess their efficacy in real combat scenarios.
The arms include over 140 Hwasong-11 series short-range ballistic missiles, with components uncovered following a Russian attack on Ukrainian forces in January 2024. The ongoing conflict might lead to even more sophisticated weaponry being dispatched from North Korea, such as anti-tank missiles and drones co-developed with Russian military technology, as the war persists.
“Should the conflict extend further, North Korea’s military support to Russia is likely to escalate,” Xu posited on the 38 North platform. He also suggested that in exchange for Pyongyang’s military assistance, Moscow may reciprocate with weaponry or military technology to enhance North Korea’s capabilities.
In a significant development, North Korea’s initial troop deployment, consisting of around 11,000 soldiers, was initiated after a summit between Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin in June 2024, which established a strategic partnership. Reports have emerged that approximately 4,000 of these troops have suffered casualties, with some taken as prisoners of war. This high attrition rate reportedly led to the withdrawal of affected units earlier this year, although additional units have since been deployed to the frontline.
As both nations deepen their military collaboration, the long-term implications for the conflict in Ukraine and regional security dynamics remain to be fully understood.
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www.theguardian.com