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A collaborative research project involving the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and Wuhan University, along with other academic institutions, has published findings in the esteemed journal Nature Cities. The paper, titled “Underlying rules of evolutionary urban systems in Africa,” delves into the intricate dynamics governing urban system evolution through the lens of complex systems theory.
The study is co-authored by Professor Peng Gong, who serves as Vice-President (Academic Development) at HKU, and Professor Limin Jiao from Wuhan University. Gang Xu and Mengyan Zhu from Wuhan University are recognized as the co-first authors. Additional contributors include Assistant Professor Bin Chen and Professor Xiaoling Zhang from HKU’s Faculty of Architecture, Assistant Researcher Zhibang Xu from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Professor Xuecao Li from China Agricultural University, Dr. Muhammad Salem of Cairo University, Associate Professor Patrick Brandful Cobbinah from the University of Melbourne, and Dr. Neema Simon Sumari from Sokoine University of Agriculture in Tanzania.
Urban systems represent a challenging yet fascinating area of study due to their inherent complexity. Evolution in these systems adheres to various fundamental laws that can be articulated via mathematical models like Zipf’s law, Gibrat’s law, and other scaling laws. Notably, past research has extensively explored the universality of these laws, often neglecting how their application might differ based on the stages of urbanization or the historical progression of city frameworks.
Africa stands out as one of the continents experiencing rapid urbanization, characterized by a diverse set of geographical features and a complex socio-historical backdrop influenced by colonialism and cultural pluralism. This uniquely intricate context has resulted in varied urban development patterns across different nations, making Africa a compelling subject for urban studies.
The research team established a comprehensive definition of urbanity and utilized remote sensing data to evaluate over 9,200 urban centers across Africa, analyzing changes from 1950 to 2020. Their investigations employed established theories such as Zipf’s law, Gibrat’s law, and scaling laws to confirm universal urban principles while also investigating their specific applications within the African context. Findings indicated a significant transition in urban populations from dispersed settlements to a concentration in major cities, as illuminated by the metrics derived from Zipf’s law. Gibrat’s law parameters demonstrated varying rates of population growth across cities of differing sizes. Furthermore, the scaling law analysis illustrated that land development in major African cities—especially in East and West Africa—has been notably pronounced, contrasting with trends observed in developed Western nations. However, as these urban centers evolved, evidence of economies of scale in land utilization began to surface, aligning with theoretical predictions.
The significance of this study lies in its provision of a detailed understanding of the underlying rules that characterize African urban system evolution from a complex systems viewpoint. It presents a comprehensive analytical framework for examining the dynamics of urban systems and regional urbanization, contributing valuable insights to the broader field of global urban studies.
The research received funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Hong Kong Research Grants Council, and the Croucher Foundation of Hong Kong.
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