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A recent study highlights the pressing risk of climate “tipping points” if current global policies remain unchanged. These tipping points represent critical thresholds where small changes can lead to catastrophic alterations in Earth’s systems.
Researchers evaluated the risk of tipping across 16 distinct components of the Earth’s ecosystem, including the potential collapse of critical ice sheets, the deterioration of tropical coral reefs, and the decline of expansive forested areas.
The findings indicate that, under the existing policy framework and the associated rise in global temperatures, there is an average probability of 62% for triggering these tipping points. However, the study suggests that adopting more sustainable pathways, which focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, could significantly diminish these risks.
Conducted by scientists from the universities of Exeter and Hamburg, the research also noted that carbon emissions resulting from specific tipping events, such as the dieback of the Amazon rainforest or the thawing of permafrost, are not expected to generate sufficient warming that could instigate additional tipping points.
Lead author Jakob Deutloff emphasized the study’s encouraging message: “The power to avert climate tipping points remains within our control.” He pointed out that transitioning toward a sustainable future with reduced emissions can notably lower the likelihood of these critical thresholds being crossed.
Furthermore, Deutloff remarked that triggering tipping points in regions like the Amazon and permafrost should not necessarily lead to a cascade effect impacting other ecological areas.
A “tipping point” is defined as a minor change that can cause a substantial shift in a system’s state, resulting in significant and enduring impacts. The researchers examined the probabilities of these tipping points across five different scenarios known as shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).
Professor Tim Lenton from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute warned of the severe repercussions climate tipping points could have on humanity. “We are clearly on a perilous path,” he stated, noting that unless we take swift action, we are likely to provoke these tipping points.
Lenton called for urgent global initiatives, advocating for the activation of “positive tipping points” within societies and economies to attain a sustainable and secure future.
Funding for the research was provided to Deutloff by the German Research Foundation, while Lenton’s work received support from the Bezos Earth Fund.
Source
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