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Impact of Pandemic School Closures on U.S. Student Performance

The recently released data regarding the performance of U.S. students on international assessments in mathematics and science has intensified discussions about the consequences of the pandemic-era policies enacted in schools. The findings underscore the detrimental effects of extended school closures, masking, and social distancing on educational outcomes, a scenario long predicted by Dr. Jay Bhattacharya.

Dr. Bhattacharya, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, emerged as a vocal opponent of prolonged lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Alongside other health experts, he was instrumental in drafting the Great Barrington Declaration. This document contended that closing schools and imposing stringent restrictions would exacerbate the harm done to children, advocating instead for prioritizing the health of the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Despite the rationale behind Bhattacharya’s stance and the declaration, it faced substantial backlash. His views drew sharp criticism from prominent figures, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, who labeled the declaration as “dangerous.” Additionally, the NIH director described the signatories as part of a “fringe component of epidemiology” outside the accepted scientific dialogue. Many academic peers and media outlets largely sidelined Bhattacharya, with the exception of a few platforms such as the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal.

Nonetheless, Bhattacharya utilized various platforms to present his findings and opinions. In a 2021 podcast interview, he emphasized the pressing need for schools to reopen, citing “overwhelming evidence” that supported this claim. Drawing comparisons with Sweden, where schools remained operational throughout the pandemic without any deaths among children and lower transmission rates, he highlighted the significant risks to children’s development posed by ongoing school closures. He pointed out that wealth disparities further exacerbated the educational gap, with affluent families able to enhance their children’s learning through private tutoring while less wealthy families could not.

Recent data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Survey (TIMSS) corroborates Bhattacharya’s concerns. The findings reveal a stark contrast in educational progress between students in the United States and their peers in Sweden during the pandemic. From 2019 to 2023, U.S. students in 4th grade experienced a drastic drop of 18 points in math scores, while 8th graders saw a decline of 17 points. In contrast, Swedish students improved their scores, gaining nine points in 4th grade and 14 points in 8th grade. This shift reflects a reversal of the previous standings where U.S. students outperformed their Swedish counterparts in 2019.

The total disparity amounts to a significant difference in learning outcomes, with U.S. students falling behind by a combined 27 points in 4th grade and 31 points in 8th grade—essentially equivalent to a year’s worth of education lost. Such findings highlight the severe consequences of transitioning from in-person to remote learning, validating Bhattacharya’s earlier warnings.

This decline in U.S. student performance is notably severe when compared to other industrialized nations. The drop in 8th-grade math scores in the United States exceeds that of most countries, surpassed only by Israel, Portugal, and Chile. Importantly, across the surveyed countries, the average decline was minimal, with only a one-point drop for 4th graders and five points for 8th graders—making the U.S. decline significantly more pronounced.

The stark contrasts between the educational experiences of students in Sweden and the United States serve as a sobering reminder of the steep costs associated with the policy decisions influenced by public health authorities during the pandemic. These outcomes raise critical questions about the long-term implications for U.S. education and the lessons that can be drawn from this period.

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www.educationnext.org