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On St George’s Day, the Royal pub in Runcorn buzzes with vibrant energy, flags on display, and a spirited conversation about the upcoming byelection. As Mike Kneale, a local painter, shares his decision on which party to support, it becomes clear: “It’s Nigel Farage,” he states unequivocally.
Farage’s image is prominent throughout the constituency, with campaign material indicating that his Reform UK party stands a strong chance of securing its fifth MP, potentially disrupting Labour’s long-standing hold on the area. If successful, this would mark a significant shift, as Runcorn hasn’t seen a non-Labour MP in almost fifty years.
Labour had a commanding victory in this region just ten months prior, boasting a majority of 14,696 votes. However, the recent controversies surrounding sitting MP Mike Amesbury have thrown the seat into contention. The competition between Labour and Reform has escalated, and many locals are preparing for what some describe as a “dogfight.”
Kneale insists, “We need to stop the boats. Pensioners need the winter fuel allowance reinstated. Look around, there are barbers and charity shops everywhere. Try to find a pair of shoes in Runcorn – it’s impossible!”
Immigration has emerged as a pivotal issue in this predominantly white British area, with Reform UK making it a central theme in their campaign. Their pamphlets controversially allege that Labour “welcomes the boats,” featuring images of young men in inflatable boats alongside statements about housing illegal migrants in the area.
According to the latest Home Office data, around 345 asylum seekers are currently accommodated within the two local authorities that cover Runcorn and Helsby, making up approximately 0.37% of the local population. Many of these individuals are housed in hotels, such as the Daresbury Park, which has become a marker of the area’s changing landscape.
A retired engineer reflecting on the Daresbury Park’s transformation notes, “It used to be a luxury hotel.” He, too, has contemplated switching his vote from Labour to Reform, mostly due to the latter’s immigration stance. However, he remains skeptical about Farage, pointing to his ties with Donald Trump and concerns regarding the NHS. “Runcorn needs a change,” he reflects, “but whether that’s Reform, I really don’t know.”
As the election nears, Labour’s candidate, Karen Shore, is under pressure. She has vowed to close the Daresbury Park facility to asylum seekers—a move that has drawn criticism, including claims of “callousness” from former Labour MP Zarah Sultana, who is now an independent.
While conversing at Deja Brew cafe in Runcorn just days before the election, Shore voiced some regret regarding her pledge. “It was not coming from a place of prejudice,” she stated, acknowledging that the tone may not have been suitable and that it was manipulated by opposing factions.
Shore further argued that Reform’s campaign tactics have unjustly vilified communities, creating an atmosphere of fear. She illustrated that, in her experience, local residents often coexist peacefully with asylum seekers.
The risk for Labour lies in alienating its traditional voters with a perceived shift to the right while failing to engage those attracted to Reform’s messaging.
Faiza Ali, a 20-year-old stallholder in Runcorn Shopping City, expressed frustration over the anti-immigrant rhetoric flooding local discussions. “People are misdirecting their anger,” she said, lamenting the growth of racist sentiments fueled by misinformation. “We need to focus on the real causes of issues in the UK.”
As the byelection unfolds, 15 candidates are contesting, yet only two—with Labour and Reform—have a genuine chance of victory.
Expectations for voter turnout are low, with projections suggesting a drop of 15-20%. This could play a significant role in determining the outcome, as Labour must rally its supporters while Reform looks to capitalize on Labour’s struggles. Reform’s candidate, Sarah Pochin, presents a more moderate stance than Farage. Notably, she previously advocated for refugees as mayor of Cheshire East.
Pochin remains cautiously optimistic, realizing that unseating Labour would require a considerable shift, especially given Labour’s previous 53% vote share compared to Reform’s 18%. While polling suggests a competitive landscape for Reform, the popularity of its leader plays to its advantage.
Campaigners note a surge in support for Reform, citing frequent interactions with voters expressing discontent with Labour. “People from challenging areas are coming out to support us,” one campaigner remarked, highlighting the dual demographics: working individuals frustrated by government support dynamics and those out of work feeling similarly neglected.
Despite Farage’s growing influence, not all constituents are swayed. Jay, a 49-year-old student, criticized Reform for capitalizing on fear, stating, “They gain traction through misinformation.”
Phillip Allen, an 80-year-old lifelong voter, continues to support Labour, attributing current challenges to inherited problems from prior administrations: “Reform feels like a protest vote to me.”
In Runcorn Shopping City, Janet Spearritt, 75, embodies the uncertainty of the electorate. “I’ve got my postal ballot here,” she gestures with her handbag, revealing her inner turmoil over voting. “I’ve been a lifelong Labour supporter, but I’m at a loss with their current direction. If I don’t submit my vote, it feels wasted, and yet I struggle to find a party I truly believe in.”
Source
www.theguardian.com