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Trade Deals and Economic Outlook: Insights from the White House
In a recent press briefing, Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, reported that over 10 countries have presented promising trade deal proposals to the United States. This comes in the wake of President Donald Trump’s implementation of significant tariffs on imports from numerous nations, aimed at reshaping international trade dynamics.
During an interview with Fox Business, Hassett expressed confidence in the U.S. economy, stating unequivocally that there is a “100% not” chance of a recession occurring in 2025. This assertion follows an industry’s growing concern regarding potential economic downturns, as evidenced by a survey revealing that 62% of U.S. CEOs anticipate a recession or significant economic challenge within the next six months.
Hassett refuted any allegations of insider trading involving Trump or White House officials related to the administration’s recent pausing of reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday. He indicated that ongoing discussions among Trump, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick aim to evaluate the merits of these new trade offers. “The one question that I have open in my mind is, should we go one at a time, or should we announce a bundle all at once?” Hassett remarked during the discussion.
Furthermore, he noted that several business executives have pointed out a trend of companies considering relocating their operations back to the U.S. Meanwhile, consumer purchasing patterns reveal an increased demand for foreign goods, potentially stemming from apprehensions about future tariffs. “So everything’s through the roof, anecdotally,” Hassett emphasized, referencing positive job report data.
Conversely, industry experts like Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, have voiced concerns about the negative repercussions of Trump’s tariffs. On the “Meet the Press” program, Dalio warned that these policies could lead to economic consequences that might be worse than a recession.
The stock market responded positively on Monday, buoyed by Trump’s weekend announcement of a tariff exemption on imported electronics, which includes vital consumer technology like smartphones and computers. However, Trump later contradicted this exemption, stating in a Truth Social post that tariffs on these items would be imposed under a different arrangement in the future.
On April 2, Trump had initially announced broad reciprocal tariffs on various countries, but a swift pivot to a 10% flat rate for 90 days occurred just hours after these tariffs took effect, leading to a surge in stock prices after a prior four-day dip. This rapid change raised suspicions among Democrats regarding possible market manipulation, particularly after Trump’s exhortation via Truth Social stating, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” just before the tariff announcement.
In response to the situation, lawmakers have called for congressional hearings to investigate the matter. Sen. Cory Booker from New Jersey noted that there is “enough smoke here that should demand congressional hearings.” Additionally, House Democrats have urged the Securities and Exchange Commission to conduct an inquiry, citing unusual spikes in stock option purchases preceding the tariff postponement. Such options enable investors to buy shares at predetermined prices, potentially suggesting strategic betting on stock movements.
On Friday, Senate Democrats also formally requested an SEC investigation. In addressing the situation, Hassett maintained that there was no insider trading linked to the White House. However, he acknowledged that substantial stock market fluctuations would warrant an appropriate investigation by relevant authorities. “But I’m sure it’s not anything to do with the White House,” he asserted, affirming the administration’s position on the matter.
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