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Rising Temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula Linked to Tasman Sea Conditions
The Antarctic Peninsula is rapidly becoming one of the most affected regions by climate change, with temperatures increasing at a rate five times greater than the global average in recent decades. Notably, the record high of 20.8°C documented on Seymour Island in February 2020 has intensified concerns regarding the causes of these significant temperature increases.
Recent research spearheaded by Dr. Fei Zheng from Sun Yat-sen University has uncovered a surprising relationship between winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Tasman Sea—situated between Australia and New Zealand—and the temperature patterns observed in the Antarctic Peninsula. Published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, the study delineates how the conditions in the mid-latitude ocean can initiate atmospheric waves that reverberate to impact polar climates.
“Our findings indicate that fluctuations in the Tasman Sea’s temperatures can create a climatic ripple effect across the Pacific that ends up warming the Antarctic Peninsula,” Dr. Zheng elaborates. “It’s noteworthy that many climate models do not accurately reflect this dynamic—those with higher resolutions perform significantly better.”
The research highlights that higher-resolution climate models are more adept at accurately simulating the atmospheric wave patterns—specifically the Pacific-South American pattern—triggered by changes in Tasman Sea SST. In contrast, lower-resolution models exhibited notable inconsistencies, leading to projections that are less reliable.
However, the study also points out some limitations of high-resolution models. While these models effectively replicate long-term warming trends, they often overstate the annual temperature fluctuations in the Antarctic Peninsula and underestimate variability in the Tasman Sea itself. This discrepancy could lead to an overemphasis on how responsive the atmosphere is to changes in ocean temperatures.
Understanding the intricate connection between the Tasman Sea and Antarctica is crucial for scientists aiming to refine climate forecasts for the Antarctic Peninsula, a region currently experiencing rapid ice melt that significantly contributes to global sea-level rise. Additionally, this research underscores the urgent need for enhanced model accuracy, particularly when simulating ocean-atmosphere interactions.
More information: Rui Wang et al, Influence of Winter Tasman Sea SST on the Antarctic Peninsula: A Perspective from Historical Simulations, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2025). DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-4350-0
Provided by the Chinese Academy of Sciences
Citation: High-resolution climate models reveal how Tasman Sea temperatures may influence Antarctic peninsula warming (2025, April 28) retrieved 28 April 2025 from https://phys.org/news/2025-04-high-resolution-climate-reveal-tasman.html
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