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Insights from a Defense Expert on Geopolitical Challenges and Technological Advancements
Currently on a hiatus, Hicks anticipates her next step, remaining engaged with ongoing developments in defense. “It’s been a breath of fresh air,” she notes, acknowledging the difficulty of disconnecting entirely. She is particularly attentive to shifts in defense policy, voicing her apprehension about potential stagnation: “New administrations come with new priorities, which is understandable, but I worry about halting the progress we have achieved over several administrations.”
Throughout her three-decade career, Hicks has witnessed significant transformations within the Pentagon, marked by political, strategic, and technological changes. Beginning her government service during the late Cold War era, she experienced a time of optimism rooted in collaborative global efforts. However, that optimism waned after the events of September 11, shifting the focus toward counterterrorism and emerging non-state threats. The resurgence of Russia and the increasing assertiveness of China have further complicated the landscape. After taking two separate breaks from government work—to earn a PhD from MIT and to join the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)—she returned in 2021 to find a singular actor, the People’s Republic of China, poised to challenge the existing international system effectively.
In a recent dialogue with MIT Technology Review, Hicks evaluates how the Pentagon is adjusting—or failing to adapt—to a new landscape of geopolitical rivalry. Her discussion covers various topics, including China’s technological advancements, the implications of AI in modern warfare, and her flagship project, Replicator—a Pentagon initiative aimed at efficiently deploying a large number of low-cost autonomous systems, including drones.
China: A Strategic Challenge
You’ve referred to China as a “talented fast follower.” Is that still your perspective, especially considering the latest advancements in AI and related technologies?
Indeed, I maintain that view. China represents our most significant pacing challenge, dictating the speed at which we must develop capabilities to deter them. In areas such as surface maritime capabilities, missile technology, and stealth fighters, when they commit to achieving a specific capability, they often do so quickly and effectively.
Conversely, it’s important to recognize the internal struggles China faces, including considerable corruption within its ranks. Moreover, they have not engaged in real combat operations similar to those undertaken by Western militaries, introducing uncertainties regarding their operational effectiveness in actual conflict scenarios.
The Evolving Narrative on Innovation
China’s achievements in technology are breaking the previous narrative of its reliance on Western innovation. Do you believe the United States still maintains a strategic edge?
It’s vital not to underestimate any nation’s capacity for organic innovation when they are resolute. However, I still think comparing the U.S. model is instructive. Our system, built on free minds, individuals, and markets, uniquely positions us to foster greater innovation organically and culturally compared to a more state-controlled approach. This intrinsic advantage is something we must capitalize on to maintain our leadership in global innovation.
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