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A recent study highlights that a significant proportion of the planet’s climate-warming carbon is concentrated in a small fraction of Earth’s ecosystems, underscoring the importance of conservation efforts to mitigate climate change. Published in the journal Nature Sustainability, the research reveals that approximately half of the Earth’s “irrecoverable carbon”—defined as carbon that, if released into the atmosphere, cannot be restored by 2050—is found within only 3.3 percent of global land area. This carbon is equivalent to 15 times the fossil fuel emissions produced in 2020.
The ecosystems identified as crucial carbon stores include peatlands, mangroves, and old-growth forests across six continents. If these areas face degradation or destruction due to human activities, the carbon could be released back into the atmosphere, undermining efforts to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), which is the target established by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Utilizing advanced data collection methods, including an analysis of over 10,000 forest carbon samples, the study assessed the capacity of soil and biomass to recover greenhouse gases post-land use changes. Findings suggest that irrecoverable carbon is spread across six of the seven continents, with substantial reserves located in the Amazon, the Congo Basin, Southeast Asian islands, Northwestern North America, Southern Chile, Southeastern Australia, and New Zealand.
The Amazon rainforest, which supports around 30 million people—including 350 Indigenous and ethnic groups—plays a vital role in the global ecosystem. It harbors one in ten known species and contributes nearly a quarter of the world’s freshwater. Moreover, it is responsible for over 20 percent of irrecoverable carbon stored in its trees and soils, more than any other region worldwide.
“Old-growth forests in the Amazon are exceptionally rich in carbon because they have been sequestering carbon for decades or even centuries, and they maintain growth year-round,” explained Juan Carlos Ledezma, a Conservation International technical specialist and co-author of the study. Notably, some of the Amazon’s largest carbon reserves are found in the Igapó, the seasonally flooded forests bordering the Amazon River. These forests remain submerged for extended periods, allowing carbon to accumulate in the soil.
However, the region faces acute challenges, with increasing deforestation pushing the Amazon towards a tipping point. Scientists warn that if 25 percent of the forest is lost—up from the current 15 percent—there is a risk the region will lose its ability to generate rainfall and transition into a dry savanna within the next 10 to 15 years. “Accelerating deforestation could exacerbate climate change, causing higher temperatures and reduced humidity, which may contribute to the drying of the rainforest and the release of stored carbon,” Ledezma added. “Drier forests are also more susceptible to wildfires, further escalating carbon release. It is a perilous cycle we must avoid.”
In Africa, the Niger Delta is recognized for having the largest contiguous area of mangroves globally, which are rich in biodiversity and marine life. These coastal forests are also important carbon stores, with buried carbon in their soil. Conservation International scientist Allie Goldstein, a co-author of the study, remarked, “Much of the organic material in mangrove forests has remained undisturbed for decades or even centuries. If left intact, the carbon in these sediments stays secure.” Despite occupying only a small portion of Earth’s surface, mangroves possess the highest density of irrecoverable carbon compared to any other ecosystem.
Within the Niger Delta, approximately 240 million tons of irrecoverable carbon are stored in the intricate root systems and soils of these mangroves. In addition to their carbon storage capabilities, mangroves provide essential habitats for marine species and act as protective buffers against storms and rising sea levels. Unfortunately, these vital ecosystems are under threat from the oil extraction industry, which ships 1.41 million barrels of oil daily, causing deforestation and pollution that endanger the mangrove forests.
PAPUA NEW GUINEA PEATLANDS
Situated in the southwest Pacific, Papua New Guinea contains an extensive stock of irrecoverable carbon, estimated at 3.9 billion metric tons, classifying the country as a “wall-to-wall carbon reserve.” The peatlands, which hold the majority of this carbon, consist of decaying waterlogged vegetation that has stored carbon over centuries. Globally, peatlands are known to contain over 39 billion metric tons of irrecoverable carbon. Like the Amazon’s flooded forests, these wetlands are susceptible to disturbances in moisture levels.
“Peatlands are remarkable for their climate benefits, yet they confront numerous threats that could trigger the release of stored carbon,” noted scientist Noon. “Typically, peatlands are drained for agricultural purposes, particularly for oil palm cultivation, or harvested as a fuel source.”
Strategies for Protecting Irrecoverable Carbon
According to recent estimates, at least 4 billion metric tons of irrecoverable carbon has been lost over the last decade due to activities such as agriculture and wildfires, while global deforestation rates continue to escalate.
In addition to establishing new protected areas, recognizing the land rights of Indigenous peoples is essential for conservation, said Noon. “Evidence shows that Indigenous communities are among the best custodians of the environment; their territories experience less biodiversity loss and pollution, while resources are managed more effectively,” she stated. “Enhancing Indigenous land rights is crucial for preserving vital ecosystems and the carbon they harbor.”
Currently, about 47 billion metric tons of irrecoverable carbon, which is more than one-third of the total, is found in areas recognized as Indigenous lands and community territories. The authors of the study suggest that even greater amounts of irrecoverable carbon likely exist on unrecognized Indigenous and community lands.
That said, the mere presence of irrecoverable carbon on Indigenous lands does not ensure its protection, according to Ledezma. “In the Amazon, for example, nearly half of the intact forests reside within Indigenous territories, making these communities vital allies in safeguarding irrecoverable carbon,” he emphasized. “However, many Indigenous groups lack the necessary resources and incentives to resist pressures to convert forests into agricultural land or mining sites. Governments must enhance support for Indigenous communities, reinforce formal recognition of their territories, and acknowledge their pivotal role in combating climate change.”
Expanding protections for regions containing significant amounts of irrecoverable carbon, alongside backing community-led conservation initiatives, is essential for countries aiming to meet their climate and biodiversity commitments, Goldstein concluded. “This presents a unique opportunity for us to prevent environmental disaster before it occurs,” she expressed. “The choices we make as a global community will significantly influence our climate future.”
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