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Global Climate Action Faces Challenges Amidst Shift Toward Fossil Fuels

The recent UN climate summit held in the United Arab Emirates in 2023 concluded with the imperative to “transition away from fossil fuels,” marking a significant step in the collective global climate effort. However, just a year later, there are growing concerns that this momentum for climate action may be waning. The growth rate of the clean energy transition is reportedly faltering as countries continue to increase fossil fuel consumption.

Amidst this backdrop, US President Donald Trump has declared a “national energy emergency,” promoting fossil fuel reliance while sidelining clean energy initiatives. His assertive policies are resonating not only within the United States but are also beginning to sway other nations and energy corporations.

In the wake of Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra and the US’s exit from the Paris Agreement, Indonesian officials have implied that they might reconsider their own commitments to climate agreements. Hashim Djojohadikusumo, Indonesia’s special envoy for climate change and energy, articulated a striking question: “If the United States does not want to comply with the international agreement, why should a country like Indonesia comply with it?” This sentiment underscores a growing sense of resentment among developing countries, many of which have historically been major contributors to carbon emissions.

‘If US is not doing it, why should we?’

Indonesia has consistently ranked among the top ten carbon-emitting nations. Djojohadikusumo pointed out the disparity in carbon emissions, noting that Indonesians emit around three tons of carbon per capita annually, compared to 13 tons per capita in the US. He questioned the fairness of asking Indonesia to curb its energy production while larger emitters continue to expand their fossil fuel operations.

Nithi Nesadurai, a director at the Climate Action Network Southeast Asia, expressed alarm over the implications of the US’s energy policies. The message being sent by the most affluent and largest oil-producing nation in the world offers a convenient rationale for other countries to ramp up their fossil fuel operations, which many are already doing.

In South Africa, where coal dependency remains high, an $8.5 billion project intended to transition away from coal has been slow to progress and now faces additional uncertainties due to the current global climate discourse. Wikus Kruger, director at Power Futures Lab at the University of Cape Town, noted that while there is some retreat from renewable energy investments, there is still significant growth anticipated in the clean energy sector.

Argentina’s shift following Trump’s election has added to the global uncertainty regarding climate commitments. The nation signaled intentions to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, influencing its own energy production strategies as articulated by Enrique Viale, president of the Argentine Association of Environmental Lawyers, who mentioned a projected increase in oil and gas production.

In the meantime, energy giant Equinor has announced plans to reduce its renewable energy investments while boosting fossil fuel production, with BP expected to follow suit. These moves come amidst a backdrop where global clean energy investments surpassed $2 trillion for the first time, though their growth trajectory has slowed.

“American energy all over the world”

Trump has publicly declared, “We will export American energy all over the world,” and it seems potential international customers are already aligning with this vision. The US and India have formalized an agreement to substantially increase American oil and gas exports to the Indian market, which was reaffirmed at the conclusion of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US.

Furthermore, reports indicate South Korea’s intent to enhance its purchases of American energy, aiming to solidify trade relations while improving its energy security. Likewise, Japan’s JERA has expressed interest in diversifying its liquified natural gas imports by sourcing more from the US.

Researchers have raised concerns regarding the implications of a US policy that may prioritize fossil fuel exports, cautioning that it could undermine global energy transitions. Lorne Stockman from Oil Change International noted that if the US inundates markets with relatively inexpensive fossil fuels, or pressures other nations into acquiescing to these imports, the global energy transition could indeed falter.

Experts emphasize that any new fossil fuel extraction must be curtailed to avoid surpassing a 1.5-degree Celsius temperature increase above pre-industrial levels. Achieving such a target requires a drastic reduction of carbon emissions—an approximate 45% reduction by 2030—compared to 2019 figures.

David Brown, director at Wood Mackenzie, elaborated on the critical role of economic factors in the decarbonization dialogue. He highlighted that the resource landscape in the US is conducive to natural gas and liquid fuels, contrasting starkly with economies reliant on imports, such as China, India, and Southeast Asian nations, which have strong incentives to pivot towards cleaner energy sources.

While global investment trends show a historic achievement in renewable energy funding, studies indicate that the momentum has noticeably decelerated in recent years as many financial institutions continue to support fossil fuel ventures, complicating the path toward sustainable energy solutions.

Source
www.bbc.com