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New IRENA Report Provides Guidance for Ensuring Sustainable Supply of EV Battery Materials
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 27 September 2024 – A recent report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), titled “Critical Materials: Batteries for Electric Vehicles“, highlights the urgent need to address the escalating demand for materials essential for electric vehicle (EV) batteries as we approach 2030. The study underscores that enhancing sustainable supply chains and fostering innovative technological developments will be key to meeting this demand.
According to the report, outlined in IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook under a 1.5°C Scenario, the annual global sales of electric vehicles must increase from 14 million units in 2023 to nearly 60 million by 2030. To achieve this ambitious target, the production of EV batteries needs to quintuple by 2030, which will in turn require a dramatic rise in the sourcing of raw materials. The report emphasizes that without substantial efforts to ramp up production and secure material supplies, the market could face critical supply-demand imbalances.
IRENA’s Director-General, Francesco La Camera, stated, “The transition to electric vehicles is happening faster than ever, owing to significant advancements in battery technology and reductions in costs. Although innovations are helping to lower the demand for certain raw materials and improving long-term availability, the pressing challenge of scaling up production capacity at a faster pace must be addressed to sustain the growth of the EV market.”
The report highlights several strategic actions that governments and stakeholders involved in the EV battery supply chain should pursue to ensure a reliable, sustainable, and economically viable supply of critical materials by the end of the decade. Among these strategies is the acceleration of research and development in battery technologies that can minimize raw material dependencies. Notably, the introduction of innovations aimed at replacing critical materials has already made a considerable difference, exemplified by the fact that cobalt and nickel are no longer necessary in nearly half of the passenger electric vehicles sold in 2023.
Furthermore, IRENA’s analysis stresses the significance of increasing mining and processing capacities for essential materials, while adhering to rigorous environmental, social, and governance standards. The report also calls for enhanced international partnerships to improve data transparency, encourage investments, and facilitate the transfer of technology, as well as to set the stage for effective recycling of critical materials beyond 2030.
In its investigation into the key materials used in EV battery manufacturing, the report outlines several critical insights with projections extending to 2030:
Lithium: The demand for lithium is projected to remain robust across various battery technology scenarios. While sodium-ion batteries, which do not require lithium, may begin to appear in the market by the end of the decade, their influence on lithium demand is expected to be more pronounced after 2030.
Cobalt: The importance of cobalt might diminish due to the increased adoption of alternative technologies such as Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) and Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate (LMFP). However, potential shortages could emerge if the reliance on cobalt-containing battery technologies continues.
Graphite: Projections indicate that natural graphite production will be inadequate to fulfill the overall demand by 2030. Advancements in synthetic graphite and new anode technologies may help close the supply-demand gap.
Nickel: The demand for nickel is expected to stabilize as LFP and LMFP batteries gain traction, alleviating previous supply concerns.
Other Materials: The overall impact of EV growth on the demand for materials such as copper, phosphorus, and manganese is anticipated to be less significant when compared to other sectors. However, the ongoing need for high-purity materials presents complexities in scaling production efficiently.
Source
www.irena.org