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Lessons from Iran’s Missile Attacks: Implications for U.S. and China in the Indo-Pacific

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Analysts are weighing the implications of Iran’s recent missile strikes on Israel, particularly in light of how these events might influence the dynamics of missile defense and offense in a potential conflict involving China in the Indo-Pacific region. The attacks, which saw Iran launching a significant volume of missiles this month, echo a similar event from April, prompting discussions about the effectiveness of missile defense systems employed by the U.S. and its allies.

The roughly 400 missiles Iran has fired at Israel this year present a unique case study for both Washington and Beijing, providing insights into the effectiveness of missile defenses against large-scale assaults, albeit with important contextual differences between the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific.

According to Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, one of the primary conclusions drawn from Iran’s October 1 strikes is that U.S. missile defenses may struggle more against China’s advanced systems than they did against Iran’s projectiles. “China’s missiles might be more challenging to intercept,” Koh noted, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to develop retaliatory capabilities to deter attacks rather than rely solely on defensive measures. In his view, the focus of deterrence may need to shift from denial—where the hope is that defenses can neutralize threats—to punishment, stressing that a robust counter-strike capacity could be essential going forward.

While there is no immediate risk of missile conflict in the Indo-Pacific, factors such as vast distances, sophisticated Chinese weaponry, and the dispersion of potential targets complicate the situation. On the defensive front, China’s military engaged in war games recently, which were framed as a response to perceived threats from Taiwan’s independence movements. However, no missile launches were reported during this exercise, according to a Taiwan security source.

In response to the growing challenges posed by China, the U.S. has introduced new defensive systems in the region, including the AIM-174B missile and the ground-based Typhon battery in the Philippines, which is capable of deploying both SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles.

Understanding Missile Capabilities in Context

The contrasting nature of missile capabilities between Iran and China adds layers of complexity. For example, Ankit Panda from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggests that an enhanced understanding of missile defenses and offensive systems, as gleaned from Iran’s attacks, could potentially mitigate the risk of conflict. He argues that military planners must take into account the effectiveness of missile defenses when strategizing long-range strikes, as the lack of clarity surrounding these systems could lead to increased escalation.

Israel’s multi-layered missile defense infrastructure effectively addresses its unique security challenges, employing systems ranging from the Arrow to the Iron Dome to counter diverse threats—from advanced guided missiles to rudimentary rockets launched from nearby regions.

Conversely, the U.S. and its allies rely on different missile defense technologies such as Lockheed Martin’s and Raytheon’s Patriot, THAAD, and Aegis systems. China’s missile capabilities, particularly its DF-26, which boasts an estimated accuracy of approximately 150 meters, heighten concerns for U.S. and allied forces in the region. The DF-26 can strike critical targets, including Guam, where significant U.S. military resources are stationed. Current estimates suggest China possesses several hundred of these missiles.

Iran’s missile arsenal, while extensive—General Kenneth McKenzie estimated over 3,000 ballistic missiles—tends to be of shorter range, such as the Fattah-1, which offers higher precision within tens of meters. However, when evaluating military capacities, it is clear that China has other advantages; for instance, missile attacks would likely be integrated with cyber warfare and anti-satellite capabilities, complicating defense efforts.

Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute underscores the challenges Western integrated defense systems would face in the Indo-Pacific, asserting that they would be far less effective against a protracted and massed Chinese missile assault compared to the challenges posed by Iran.

In summary, the lessons drawn from Iran’s missile engagements are not easily translatable to the Indo-Pacific context, given the distinct tactical environments. Still, they pose vital implications for U.S. strategy and readiness in facing potential threats from China.

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