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Irish Election Preview: Centre-Right Parties Poised for Coalition
DUBLIN – Following the recent election in Ireland, the two major centre-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, seem positioned to retain power. However, the path to a majority appears complex, necessitating the support of at least one junior coalition partner, which raises concerns about the potential stability of the forthcoming government.
The political landscape could shift dramatically with the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose intentions to reduce corporate taxes and implement tariffs present significant risks for Ireland’s economy. The upcoming coalition discussions could be influenced by these external economic pressures.
According to an exit poll, Fine Gael garnered approximately 21% of the vote, while Fianna Fail earned around 19.5%. Notably, left-wing party Sinn Fein captured 21.1%, indicating a tighter race than many anticipated. With both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail ruling out a collaboration with Sinn Fein, the focus now shifts to how many seats they can collectively secure and whether they will require assistance from other smaller parties.
Politics expert Gary Murphy from Dublin City University commented, “If they both reach around 20%, they could be close to securing 80 seats, but the real question is which smaller parties will join them.” For a stable government, a partnership with moderate centre-left parties, like Labour or the Social Democrats, is considered essential, especially if they manage to attain 11 or 12 seats. However, creating a coalition involving four parties may result in a more precarious administration.
The Green Party, which currently acts as a junior coalition partner, has seen a decline in support, capturing only 4% of the vote compared to 7% in the last election. This downturn could lead to a reduction in their seat count from 12 to possibly three, as noted by senior party member Ciaran Cuffe.
Vote counting commenced at 0900 GMT and is expected to continue until at least Sunday in many regions, utilizing Ireland’s single transferable vote system for proportional representation. This system may favor larger parties, potentially resulting in them receiving more seats than their overall vote share suggests; however, a clearer picture of the seat distribution might not be available until Sunday.
The Impact of a Giveaway Budget
Prime Minister Simon Harris summoned the election shortly after presenting a substantial 10.5 billion euro ($11 billion) budget aimed at benefiting voters directly, bolstered by significant revenues from multinational corporate taxes. Despite this financial boon, the campaign was marred by missteps, including a widely publicized incident where Harris appeared dismissive toward a frustrated care worker, which influenced voter perception and eroded the party’s pre-election momentum.
The government faced a growing wave of dissatisfaction throughout the campaign, primarily stemming from its inability to translate Ireland’s robust public finances into improved public services.
Sinn Fein, once on the brink of leading the government a year prior, has experienced a dramatic decline in support, dropping from a predicted 30-35% partly due to mounting discontent over its immigration policies among its working-class constituents.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, historic rivals that have dominated the political scene since the establishment of the Irish state nearly a century ago, had established a power-sharing agreement for the last government, alternating the prime ministership during their term. A similar arrangement seems likely in the current political climate.
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