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Economist Warns Against Overhyping AI’s Economic Impact
A prominent economist is raising concerns about the prevailing trend of excessive investment in artificial intelligence (AI), cautioning that an overemphasis on machine capabilities at the expense of human skills could lead to significant errors in judgment.
In a recent interview with NPR, Daron Acemoglu, an MIT economist recognized for his contributions to economic theory, expressed skepticism regarding claims that AI will drastically transform the economy within the next decade. He commented, “I mean, unless you count a lot of companies overinvesting in generative AI and then regretting it.”
Acemoglu, who received the prestigious Global Economy Prize in 2019, argues that the anticipated implications of AI are often overstated. He suggests that the technology’s application is limited primarily to office settings and points out its inability to entirely supplant human roles. According to him, AI often falters, as its effectiveness is tied to the quality of data it processes, which may frequently be compromised by copyright issues.
In an April paper, Acemoglu assessed the long-term ramifications of AI on the economy. His research indicates that fewer than 5% of jobs are likely to be affected by AI advancements, with only a “modest” contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) growth expected over the coming ten years.
One of the critical discussions raised in his study revolves around whether AI tools like ChatGPT should be expected to compose intricate literary works when there is a more pressing demand for dependable information that serves the needs of educators, healthcare workers, and skilled tradespeople.
Concerns about AI’s reliability have surfaced frequently; Google’s AI tools encountered significant inaccuracies shortly after their debut, while a $600,000 chatbot deployed in New York City provided misleading guidance to business owners.
Daron Acemoglu. Credit: Frank Molter/picture alliance via Getty Images
Acemoglu also revealed during the NPR interview that his written materials have been used without permission by AI firms for training their systems. Experimenting with AI to summarize his own work, he noted the outcomes were “not horrible,” yet he maintained that human hosts would yield superior results in conveying his concepts.
“A lot of people in the industry don’t recognize how versatile, talented, multifaceted human skills – capabilities are,” Acemoglu remarked. “And once you do that, you tend to overrate machines ahead of humans and underrate the humans.”
As the debate over AI’s role and potential continues, insights from experts like Acemoglu may be vital in shaping a balanced perspective on the relationship between technological advancement and human capability.
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