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Is McLaren Surpassing Red Bull?

Photo credit: www.motorsport.com

After each Formula 1 testing event, including this week’s session, there’s an important reminder: lap times alone don’t tell the whole story.

Teams are not privy to each other’s specific testing programs, and this uncertainty is more pronounced for those observing from the sidelines. In particular, single-lap times provide minimal insight since teams don’t showcase their maximum capabilities; factors like fuel loads and engine settings play significant roles in the results.

However, our data partner PACETEQ has provided insights into long-run pace, which, when paired with GPS data and top-speed analyses, can help indicate engine performance and potential sandbagging strategies.

This data reveals a developing trend, albeit with necessary caveats, and it’s worth noting that teams will continue to refine their vehicles leading up to the season opener in Melbourne slated for March 14-16, 2025.

With this context in mind, how do the teams rank after the pre-season testing at the Bahrain International Circuit?

10. Sauber

Nico Hulkenberg, Sauber C45

Photo by: Sauber F1 Team

Within the F1 community, there’s a consensus that Sauber remains at the back of the grid, having concluded the previous championship season in last place.

The C45 exhibited signs of instability, particularly at the double left-hand Turns 9 and 10, where drivers Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto struggled to find consistent lines. Their long-run performance was also underwhelming, averaging a gap of 1.3 seconds per lap behind faster teams. This isn’t unexpected given that much of Sauber’s focus has shifted to 2026, when it transitions to the Audi F1 Team amid a new regulatory framework.

9. Racing Bulls

Yuki Tsunoda, RB F1 Team

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

While Racing Bulls boasts a visually appealing livery, the team faces a challenging 2025 season ahead. Yuki Tsunoda has voiced concerns over their current competitive position, indicating that they are worse off relative to rivals than last year, potentially limiting their ability to score points early in the season.

Despite this, their long-run pace showed promise, with an average deficit of about one second per lap compared to McLaren. Tsunoda will be joined by rookie team-mate Isack Hadjar, who takes over from Liam Lawson as they navigate the upcoming challenges together.

8. Haas

Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 Team

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The margins separating midfield teams are razor-thin, complicating efforts to provide a definitive ranking.

Haas has not delivered a clear picture in the initial stages of testing. Esteban Ocon’s long runs on the final day did not involve a full fuel load or complete race simulations, making it difficult to assess their performance consistently.

Although Ocon’s times showed a gap exceeding one second behind McLaren, the team’s evident low tire degradation suggests they are building on their 2024 attributes.

7. Aston Martin

Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin Racing

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Aston Martin is heavily recalibrating its focus towards the 2026 regulations, having secured renowned designer Adrian Newey and with Honda entering as a power unit supplier.

However, the team’s pre-season performance fell short of expectations, particularly with Lance Stroll’s physical condition necessitating adjustments to their testing strategy. Overall, Aston Martin did not exhibit significant speed or competitiveness throughout the testing period, even though their car displayed a degree of stability in certain sections.

6. Williams

Carlos Sainz, Williams

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Williams emerged as a pleasant surprise during the three-day test in Bahrain, even as the focus remains primarily on the 2026 season.

The recruitment of experienced driver Carlos Sainz, along with podium finisher Alex Albon, seems to be positively influencing the team dynamics. Sainz, previously with Ferrari, has adapted well, impressing team principal James Vowles with his insights and experience.

While single-lap times aren’t telling the full story, Williams showed commendable long-run pace relative to competing midfield teams, indicating their readiness to become a serious contender in this segment.

5. Alpine

Pierre Gasly, Alpine

Photo by: Alpine

With four teams clearly ahead in performance, Alpine finds itself firmly in the ‘best of the rest’ category following promising results during testing.

An impressive turnaround from last year’s issues with weight has positioned Alpine favorably, with Pierre Gasly clocking times only six-tenths off the leaders. However, a notable disparity between his performance and that of rookie team-mate Jack Doohan reveals potential concerns regarding team balance as the season progresses.

4. Mercedes

George Russell, Mercedes

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

George Russell’s long-run performances positioned Mercedes in a credible spot, showcasing stability akin to Ferrari’s pace, with the team encountering no significant issues during testing.

The absence of setbacks is crucial for Mercedes, particularly in light of past development pitfalls. Current indications suggest they are on track to avoid those struggles, even if they still slightly trail reigning champions McLaren.

Russell will be joined this year by rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who also demonstrated solid capabilities throughout the pre-season tests.

3. Ferrari

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari SF-25

Photo by: Ferrari

With high anticipation surrounding Ferrari, especially after the addition of seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton, the team aims to break a lengthy championship drought.

However, their long-run speed in Bahrain was not particularly strong, highlighted by struggles on the straights which could offer clues about engine performance. Hamilton’s aborted race simulation after just 12 laps underscored concerns, with both he and team-mate Charles Leclerc demonstrating similar deficits compared to McLaren.

2. Red Bull

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

The competition at the top of the grid appears tight, making firm placement challenging. Still, Red Bull personnel—including advisor Helmut Marko and reigning champion Max Verstappen—expressed optimism regarding the RB21 during the testing phases.

Marko noted significant improvements in the car’s handling, while Verstappen indicated a lack of unpleasant surprises thus far. However, the team agrees that more work remains to be done. A full race simulation performed by new driver Liam Lawson fell short by seven-tenths to McLaren, but had Verstappen been driving, the gap could have been reduced, possibly putting Red Bull even closer to top performance.

1. McLaren

Lando Norris, McLaren

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

As the reigning champions, McLaren stands out as the frontrunner for the upcoming F1 season, with growing speculation about how much faster they are compared to their nearest competitors.

McLaren’s performance during testing was particularly noteworthy, as Lando Norris showed impressive consistency in his long runs, raising concerns among rival teams. The innovative design choices, such as the unique front suspension, have sparked discussion and intrigue, particularly from Red Bull. The modifications appear successful so far, even at a track where McLaren has historically faced challenges.

Source
www.motorsport.com

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