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It is feasible to assess the repercussions of greenhouse gas emissions over a defined timeframe. Callahan and Mankin highlight that internal research from oil companies as early as the 1980s identified climate change as a significant concern and attempted to gauge the effects of emissions generated once awareness of the issue was established. This methodology demonstrates a remarkable degree of adaptability.
Utilizing empirical data, researchers have linked rising temperatures to economic repercussions. According to Callahan and Mankin, “Recent peer-reviewed work has used econometrics to infer causal relationships between climate hazards and outcomes such as income loss, reduced agricultural yields, increased human mortality, and depressed economic growth.” Such metrics enable estimations of the financial impact of phenomena like flooding and agricultural losses. In another approach, researchers can investigate the consequences of specific climate events where economic costs have already been determined.
Extensive Financial Consequences
To operationalize their approach, the researchers develop numerous individual models, which cumulatively yield the most probable costs and their associated variability. Initially, they convert each oil company’s emissions data into impacts on global average surface temperatures. This data is then further transformed to estimate the effects on extreme temperature events, ultimately allowing for the calculation of economic damages related to extreme heat occurrences.
Using Chevron as a case study, by the year 2020, the company’s emissions accounted for 0.025° C of the warming experienced that year. Analyzing a range from 1991 to 2020 yields estimated damages between approximately $800 billion and $3.6 trillion, with the majority of these losses concentrated in tropical regions.
Continuing this analysis across the five corporations responsible for the highest carbon emissions, researchers found that Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, Chevron, and ExxonMobil collectively contributed about $2 trillion in damages, while BP recorded damages totaling around $1.45 trillion. When expanding the evaluation to encompass all 111 major carbon-emitting companies, Callahan and Mankin estimate the total economic damages at approximately $28 trillion.
Source
arstechnica.com