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On the inaugural day of China’s National People’s Congress, a significant gathering within its National People’s Congress, the government in Beijing revealed plans to elevate its military expenditure by nearly $250 billion this year, reflecting an increase of over 7%. This decision underscores China’s ongoing efforts to modernize its military forces. Concurrently, China has been assertively reinforcing its territorial claims over contentious islands in the South China Sea and its stance regarding Taiwan, a democratically governed island that Beijing views as a renegade province.
President Xi Jinping has consistently pledged to reestablish control over Taiwan, indicating that force could be employed if necessary. Nonetheless, Taiwan has had longstanding support from the United States, which is mandated by domestic law to equip the island adequately for self-defense against potential aggression.
The United States maintains a visible military presence in the region, with naval vessels and aircraft routinely operating in the South China Sea and around Taiwan to assert the principle of free navigation in international waters. These operations have at times led to heightened tensions between the U.S. and China.
Recently, Taiwan’s leadership and its citizens have observed with concern the evolving dynamics within U.S. foreign policy, particularly highlighted by President Trump’s contentious interactions with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting at the White House. This shift in U.S. stance has raised apprehensions regarding Taiwan’s security—prompting fears that a similar withdrawal of support from Washington could occur in the event of escalating conflict with China.
Russell Hsiao, the executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, D.C., expressed these sentiments, noting, “The collective impact of these events creates considerable anxiety among Taiwan’s populace. The recent shift in U.S. support for Ukraine raises questions about whether Taiwan might also face abandonment during a critical standoff with China.”
Taiwan’s Relationship with the U.S. and Trump
Since 1950, following the Nationalists’ retreat to Taiwan after losing the civil war to the communists, the U.S. has provided over $50 billion in military aid to Taiwan, supplying advanced weapons systems such as HIMARS rocket systems, F-16 fighter jets, and significant numbers of Abrams tanks, as reported by the Council on Foreign Relations.
Taiwan has allocated nearly 2.5% of its budget for 2025—approximately $20 billion—for defense intentions. Nonetheless, pressure from the Trump administration is mounting for Taipei to enhance its defense expenditures, mirroring demands placed on the United Kingdom and the European Union to increase their military budgets in light of supporting Ukraine.
During recent hearings, a nominee for a key defense position under Trump suggested that Taiwan should amplify its defense spending to four times its current levels. “I concur with President Trump that their defense budget ought to be in the vicinity of 10% or thereabouts, with an explicit emphasis on their defense capabilities,” remarked Elbridge Colby before the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te is already proposing to raise defense spending above 3%, a proposition that will necessitate approval from Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan.
While Lai has not had direct communications with Trump since the latter’s reelection, he relayed his congratulations through Ambassador Robert O’Brien, Trump’s former national security advisor. This stands in contrast to the relationship Lai’s predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, cultivated with Trump, who controversially took a call from Tsai shortly after his election in 2016, stoking tensions with Beijing.
The Trump transition team at that time indicated that the presidents discussed various facets of their relationship, which enraged the Chinese government. Historically, direct communications between U.S. leaders and Taiwanese presidents have been rare since diplomatic recognition shifted to China in 1979 under the Nixon administration.
Trump and Taiwan: A Potentially Favorable Scenario?
Though there may be concerns in Taipei regarding the difference in personal interactions between Trump and Lai, Hsiao offered a more optimistic perspective, drawing on Trump’s own characterization of international relations as a strategy game. He emphasized that, unlike Ukraine, Taiwan possesses meaningful leverage in its bilateral engagements with the United States through its robust economy and advanced high-tech sector.
Taiwan, despite its modest land area—comparable to that of West Virginia—stands as one of the United States’ principal trade allies. According to U.S. government statistics, it ranks seventh, with trade values nearing $160 billion in 2024.
This week, amid unfolding events regarding Ukraine’s critical mineral agreements with the U.S., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a key player in the global semiconductor supply chain, secured a $100 billion deal with Trump to establish five new semiconductor facilities in Arizona. Trump stated this initiative would generate thousands of high-paying jobs, further boosting Taiwan’s total investment in the U.S. semiconductor sector to about $165 billion.
While Trump has previously leveled accusations at Taiwan regarding its impact on the U.S. semiconductor industry, the latest agreement allows TSMC to bypass the 25% tariffs imposed on foreign semiconductor companies, a development that likely eased concerns among Taiwanese officials gaining ground amidst interactions with the Trump administration.
However, with China’s significant military advancements and proximity to Taiwan, Taiwanese leaders must remain vigilant and composed in their dealings with the U.S. “It is crucial for Taipei’s leaders to stay calm while engaging with the Trump administration, and to fortify the U.S.-Taiwan security alliance,” noted Hsiao, emphasizing that this partnership is critical for Taiwan’s defense strategy moving forward.
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