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By Fazlul Haq, The Ohio State University
In 1995, World Bank Vice President Ismail Serageldin cautioned that conflicts in the coming century would likely revolve around water rather than oil. Nearly thirty years later, this concern is materializing in the tense region of Kashmir.
On April 24, 2025, India declared it would downgrade diplomatic relations with Pakistan following a militant attack in Kashmir that left 26 tourists dead. India also announced it would suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, a critical agreement governing water distribution between the two countries. Pakistan responded with threats of reciprocal measures, warning any disruption of its water supply would be seen as an “act of war.”
This recent escalation has deep historical roots. My team at the Indus Basin Water Project at Ohio State University is currently examining the enduring water disputes between India and Pakistan.
Conducting fieldwork in Kashmir, I observe how geopolitical tensions, exacerbated by recent violence, pose a significant threat to the fragile water treaty, particularly as climate change exacerbates environmental pressures in the region.
Towards Just Solutions for Water Conflicts
The Indus River has been a lifeline for civilizations for thousands of years, dating back to the Harappan civilization of 2600 to 1900 B.C.E. The partition of India in 1947 transformed control over the Indus River system into a contentious issue between India and Pakistan. Conflicts broke out quickly, particularly after India interrupted water supplies to Pakistan in 1948, causing agricultural concerns. This spurred years of negotiations, leading to the Indus Waters Treaty signed in 1960.
Facilitated by the World Bank, this treaty is often cited as one of the most effective transboundary water agreements. It allocated the Indus Basin between India and Pakistan, with India controlling the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) and Pakistan the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab).
However, this agreement was drafted in a markedly different geopolitical context, when both nations were newly independent and relatively small in population—46 million in Pakistan versus 436 million in India at the time. Presently, those figures have escalated substantially: Pakistan’s population exceeds 240 million, while India’s is around 1.4 billion, leading to increased pressure on shared water resources.
Over 300 million people currently depend on the Indus River Basin, putting immense strain on this vital water source amidst the ongoing conflicts and climate change repercussions.
Consequences of Glacier Retreat
Many contemporary issues stem from what the treaty did not encompass. Originally, there was insufficient research on glacier dynamics. Negotiators assumed the Himalayan glaciers sustaining the Indus River were stable.
Consequently, climatic shifts and glacial melting weren’t accounted for when the treaty was established. Additionally, factors like groundwater depletion, water pollution, and potential large-scale hydrodevelopment were overlooked in its design.
Assuming that historical hydrological patterns would endure, the treaty failed to predict the severe impacts of climate change, leading to accelerated glacier melt. Currently, the glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates.
The World Meteorological Organization noted that 2023 was the driest year in over three decades, disrupting agriculture and ecosystems. The loss of global glaciers is significant, releasing over 600 gigatons of water.
The Himalayas alone provide 60-70% of the summer flow for the Indus River, and a 2019 analysis indicates they lose around 8 billion tons of ice annually. This highlights a critical challenge for the long-term viability of the treaty, which may not be equipped to manage increasing water scarcity—particularly affecting Pakistan, which heavily relies on the Indus during drier seasons.
Moreover, the treaty only addresses surface water management and neglects groundwater extraction, a pressing issue in both nations. In Punjab, a crucial agricultural region, overuse of groundwater has led to depletion, with this resource now accounting for about 48% of water use.
The Kashmir Dilemma
In addition to climate concerns, the architects of the Indus Waters Treaty overlooked the contentious status of Kashmir. This region has been a focal point of India-Pakistan tensions since the Partition in 1947, with the princely state offered the choice to join either nation. Following the decision of its Hindu ruler to accede to India, conflict erupted, resulting in the first Indo-Pakistani war.
The resulting U.N.-mediated ceasefire in 1949 established the Line of Control, dividing the region between India and Pakistan. Since then, Kashmir has remained a flashpoint for further conflict and unrest, still claimed by both countries.
Despite being central to the water supply of the basin, Kashmiris have historically been excluded from negotiations, meaning their hydropower and agricultural potential remains largely untapped. With only 19.8% of its hydropower capabilities utilized, local communities find themselves unable to benefit from the resources in their lands.
This disregard for Kashmiri interests is evident in ongoing disputes over Indian projects such as the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams. Pakistan has expressed concerns over how these initiatives could disrupt water flows, particularly during vital agricultural periods.
Nevertheless, the treaty lacks direct mechanisms for resolving such conflicts, thus leaving Kashmir’s concerns largely unaddressed. Ongoing tensions regarding projects have steered both nations towards diplomatic stalemate long before the recent escalation.
The disputes surrounding the Kishanganga and Ratle dams are currently under arbitration in The Hague, underscoring the inadequacies of the treaty in managing cross-border water issues. In September 2024, India officially called for a review of the treaty, citing shifts in demographics, energy requirements, and security concerns related to Kashmir.
Thus, the treaty is now suspended in uncertainty. While it remains in effect, India’s call for its review halts essential cooperative efforts, raising questions about its long-term viability.
Towards a Fair and Sustainable Agreement
Going forward, it is essential that reforms to the Indus Waters Treaty acknowledge the hydrological prominence of Kashmir and actively involve voices from the region. Ignoring Kashmiri input in future dialogues—something neither India nor Pakistan have proposed—would only perpetuate the marginalization of the region, sidelining the needs of its inhabitants.
As discussions around “climate-proofing” the treaty progress, incorporating Kashmiri perspectives will be vital in forging a more equitable and sustainable framework for managing transboundary water resources.
Nicholas Breyfogle, Madhumita Dutta, Alexander Thompson, and Bryan G. Mark at the Indus Basin Water Project at the Ohio State University contributed to this article.
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