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Kemi Badenoch has only recently assumed the Conservative party leadership, and discussions about her potential successor are already cropping up within Westminster. Over the weekend, Nigel Farage asserted that Badenoch would be “lucky to survive past June.” While it is unsurprising that the leader of Reform UK would voice such sentiments, his comments reflect a broader concern among some party members regarding Badenoch’s stability in her role.
Badenoch faces multiple challenges as leader. The Conservative Party often finds itself in third place in national polls, trailing both Labour and Reform. Financial resources are limited, with recent layoffs anticipated at Conservative campaign headquarters (CCHQ), despite an uptick in donations towards the end of last year. Within the party, there is criticism of Badenoch’s approach during prime minister’s questions, where her style has been described as unfocused and lacking strategic clarity. The upcoming local elections in May will mark her first major test as leader, and sources within CCHQ seem to be managing expectations, warning of possible electoral setbacks.
Perhaps more troubling for Badenoch is the evident dissent among her party’s right-wing factions, many of whom did not support her leadership aspirations. Regular criticisms from figures like Dominic Cummings, a prominent Brexit strategist, highlight her vulnerabilities. Recently, Cummings suggested via social media that Badenoch is better off “playing iPad games all day than playing ‘policy.’” Speculation surrounding a potential coup among right-wing factions, especially after Cummings dined with Farage, adds to the apprehensions about her leadership. Her critics argue she is either too confrontational or that her cabinet lacks the necessary aggression to effectively challenge Reform.
Nonetheless, discontent regarding her leadership does not yet seem to infiltrate the party at large. “I don’t think she is doing that well but she’s not going anywhere at the moment,” remarked a former cabinet minister. Some party members assert that Badenoch’s recent declarations, including that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 is “impossible,” along with the announcement of various policy commissions, indicate a positive shift. Despite accusations from former Tory MP Chris Skidmore that she has reneged on a prior commitment to support net zero goals, many within the party view her stance as a strategic move to reclaim ground against Reform. “Her position is much stronger than a few weeks ago,” claimed a shadow cabinet member. Even those critical of her tenure are downplaying the urgency of her potential departure, pointing out that upcoming local elections have less weight due to postponed votes.
While there is no immediate call for a leadership change, lingering doubts about Badenoch’s future remain. “There are things she should do to increase her survivability,” suggested one Tory MP, recognizing that her recent policy shifts could be a small step towards bolstering her position.
Badenoch must also navigate the turbulent political landscape characterized by ongoing critiques from Cummings and Farage, as she anticipates the emergence of a campaign advocating for a collaborative electoral strategy between Reform and the Conservatives. This new initiative, tentatively named “unite the right,” could further complicate her leadership as she has vehemently opposed any form of alliance with Farage.
In conversations about potential successors, names like Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick have surfaced. Jenrick, who previously contested the leadership against Badenoch, is increasingly viewed as a viable alternative should her leadership falter. Notably effective in his role, he has garnered attention through his proactive engagement on social media and policy discussions. “Some of the shadow cabinet are jealous of Rob as he keeps making news but he is also working a lot harder,” pointed out a Tory MP.
Although some party members fondly recall Boris Johnson’s tenure, he does not currently have significant backing as a potential leader. “It’s the same people as before talking up Boris, and they will say, ‘Oh, he stopped Farage,’” remarked a Tory MP, emphasizing Johnson’s record of increasing legal migration.
For now, Badenoch’s closest allies aim to minimize distractions and demonstrate a clear strategic plan to party members. “It’s the same people mouthing off. They’re like the Japanese soldiers who didn’t know the Second World War had ended and were trying to keep it going,” explained a supporter. Badenoch is likely counting on disarray within Reform to shift the focus away from her own challenges.
However, Badenoch appears to acknowledge the necessity of building alliances for her future. Recently, she has initiated informal lunches with MPs following prime minister’s questions, where pizza has become the preferred food choice—an ironic twist given her previous aversion to sandwiches. She recognizes that while she may have some breathing room now, sustained progress is crucial for her continued leadership. If the Conservative Party’s polling remains lackluster, her challengers will likely find it easier to gain traction.
Source
www.theguardian.com