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Three games in the AFC playoffs, three not-so-close contests. The league’s decision to drop the “Super” label from their Wildcard Weekend sales pitch appears to have been a wise move.
Despite the lopsided scores, the lead-up to the most anticipated match-up looms large: a showdown between Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in a do-or-die matchup that promises to showcase MVP-caliber talent.
In the wildcard round, Jackson and Allen combined to complete 36 of 47 attempts, passing for a total of 447 yards and securing four touchdowns without any interceptions. This impressive feat was achieved against two of the most formidable defenses in the league. The Denver Broncos have stood out for their pursuit of quarterbacks this season, while the Pittsburgh Steelers possess a cadre of All-Pro pass-rushers.
Yet, these challenges seemed to fade in the wake of Jackson and Allen’s performances. According to Next Gen Stats, Jackson surpassed expectations by completing 12.8% more passes than anticipated against the Steelers, while Allen exceeded his expected completion percentage by 16.5% against the Broncos.
What makes the comparison between these two quarterbacks compelling is their shared traits. Their mobility and decision-making differentiate them as dual threats—a nightmare for any defense. They each bring a combination of tactical prowess and explosive capability that can transform a game in an instant.
But there’s a stylistic divide between the two. Jackson’s agility allows him to navigate the field gracefully, effortlessly evading defenders. In contrast, Allen’s power is undeniable; he plays with a toughness reminiscent of a freight train, punishing any defender daring enough to challenge him.
At just 28 years old, both are hitting their stride, having improved aspects of their games even further into their careers. Allen and Jackson have faced various defenses and scenarios, and their experiences have equipped them with the insights needed for a championship run. Crucially, they each benefit from a talented supporting cast to back their aspirations.
Critics may point to their postseason performances in previous years, where both quarterbacks have struggled with inconsistency. Jackson’s errors have often arisen from an overstretched offensive scheme, while Allen has occasionally succumbed to a desire to play the hero.
This season, they have adjusted their strategies. Jackson and the Ravens have embraced a power-run approach reminiscent of Derrick Henry’s playing style, while Allen and the Bills have also shifted towards a run-heavy scheme that complements their passing attack.
Both the Ravens and the Bills deserve recognition for this strategic evolution. They’ve acknowledged that the previous approach of relying on improvisational quarterbacks is no longer viable. Instead, they have doubled down on the run game to create effective passing opportunities. Teams like the Lions, Eagles, Bills, and Ravens have adopted a more physical style that compels defenses to account for the ground game, thereby easing the burden on their quarterbacks. Nearly one-fifth of Buffalo’s offensive plays involve an additional lineman, marking the highest percentage since 1994 as they use superior mass to dominate defensive fronts. Conversely, Baltimore strengthened their backfield by acquiring Henry, a player whose impact has surpassed initial expectations. In scenarios where Jackson or Allen join such a potent run game, the results can be intimidating.
The mere thought of what Jackson and Allen can accomplish leads to a host of opportunities for other players on their teams. Historically, this dynamic meant increasing the workload on their quarterbacks, but both franchises have realized that reducing everyday pressures can elevate performances. Instead of leaning on their star quarterbacks constantly, critical moments have witnessed their brilliance. As a result, they have recorded some of the lowest turnover rates of their careers.
However, the inherent talents of Jackson and Allen remain potent. To secure victory in critical situations, their exceptional capabilities will likely need to shine through. While both have produced remarkable moments throughout the season, the journey through the playoffs demands adaptability and the ability to shift styles. Previous reliance on a singular approach has shown vulnerability whenever one of them falters. In contrast, their current teams exhibit the depth to navigate various strategies, allowing Jackson and Allen to compile the finest seasons yet.
Constructing a multi-dimensional team while navigating salary cap limitations is no small feat. Embracing a dynamic playing style involves more than just two standout players; it requires a cohesive effort that is enabled by Jackson and Allen’s transformative skills. They can orchestrate the offense methodically or spark explosive plays, with Jackson demonstrating command similar to that of a Manning-like figure at the line of scrimmage, while Allen exhibits traits reflecting the early stages of Tom Brady’s career as he focuses on a strong running attack until crunch time.
Patrick Mahomes has long dominated the narrative of the league since his ascendance as a starter, adeptly resisting any attempts from Brady to take the spotlight. While this season may spotlight figures like Dan Campbell’s heartily competitive Lions, a stacked Eagles roster, or Mahomes pushing for a historic third consecutive title, one should relish the upcoming confrontation. It promises to feature two of this season’s premier quarterbacks culminating in a well-rounded contest where a single miscalculation—a misguided throw or turnover—could sway the tide. Though the wildcard round might have been underwhelming, it has set the stage for an exceptional clash ahead.
MVP of the week
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders. In his inaugural season, Daniels steered Washington to its first playoff victory in nearly two decades, edging the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 at their home stadium. The matchup contained moments of fortune for the Commanders as missteps from the Buccaneers—including a critical fumble by Baker Mayfield and questionable time management on the part of coach Todd Bowles—allowed Washington to capitalize. It was a fortuitous bounce on the game-winning field goal that secured the victory for the Commanders. Nonetheless, in pivotal situations, Daniels proved reliable, especially when the running game struggled. Facing aggressive defensive pressure, he delivered impressive performances on key third downs, totaling 304 all-purpose yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Video of the week
The display of strength in the NFL is epitomized by the audacious triple stiff-arm move executed by Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert while scoring a 24-yard touchdown against the Packers.
The play illustrated sheer physical dominance. Goedert first corralled a wayward pass from Jalen Hurts before barreling through Carrington Valentine. He employed a swift hand shove to create some space and then, at the nine-yard line, showcased an impressive display of strength, knocking Valentine backward as he muscled his way toward the end zone. As he neared the goal line, Goedert paused momentarily to add extra insult to injury, delivering one final shove before entering the end zone. The incident was so remarkable that it almost seemed surprising he wasn’t flagged for taunting.
The Eagles triumphed over the Packers with a score of 22-10 in a game marked by offensive struggles on both sides. Green Bay’s offense faced significant challenges, missing several key players due to injuries, which contributed to their inability to stay competitive. The Eagles displayed such comfort in their performance that wide receiver AJ Brown was seen reading a book on the sidelines.
Stat of the week
Four. Justin Herbert faced criticism following a disappointing showing against the Texans, where he threw four interceptions in the Chargers’ 32-12 loss—surpassing the three interceptions he threw all season long.
This has sparked the resurgence of memes likening Herbert to Joel Embiid, as the narrative that he excels in the regular season but falters in the playoffs gains traction, despite limited playoff samples. Herbert, in his five-year career, has played two playoff games, both cases where he has led his team as a road favorite against an underwhelming AFC South champion. But in both instances, he struggled mightily in the second half.
Herbert’s performance against the Texans was subpar by any measure, ranking 213th out of 214 playoff quarterback performances in the last decade in terms of EPA per pass play, as noted by data analyst Sheil Kapadia. Only Brian Hoyer’s infamous outing during the Texans’ 30-0 loss to the Chiefs in 2015 was deemed worse.
Facing a formidable pass-rushing duo, Herbert struggled under pressure, leading to a performance filled with erratic decisions that cost the Chargers crucial points. While not all interceptions were solely his fault—and some occurred with the game already out of reach—he squandered critical opportunities, including a questionable throw into heavy coverage when they could have gained a two-score lead.
Although Herbert has developed his game under Jim Harbaugh by cutting down on unnecessary risks, in a high-stakes situation, he reverted to reckless behavior. His struggle to remain composed over the course of the game raises alarm bells for the franchise as they look to build for the future. True franchise quarterbacks are measured against certain standards, and thus far, Herbert has fallen short.
Elsewhere around the league
— The Pittsburgh Steelers are on notice after another disappointing playoff performance. Coach Mike Tomlin, recognized for his ability to elevate teams, faces mounting pressure as his playoff record of 8-11, including a streak of eight winless postseason appearances, raises concerns. For a franchise with high expectations for championships, change feels necessary. Whether re-evaluating coaching personnel or pursuing new talent could be on the horizon.
— The first head coach hiring of the offseason has been completed, with Mike Vrabel heading to New England to take over for the short-lived Jerod Mayo. Vrabel, a former Titans head coach and Patriots linebacker, has a reputation for maximizing talent and fostering a strong culture. His track record of winning records during his four seasons in Tennessee, including multiple playoff appearances, positions him well for this new role.
— The NFL is reportedly considering modifications to its playoff seeding system. According to CBS, discussions will focus on whether the new format should prioritize regular-season win percentage over traditional division champion seeding, potentially reshaping playoff dynamics going forward.
Source
www.theguardian.com