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Concerns of Political Violence Loom Ahead of Election Day
As the United States approaches Election Day, security analysts warn that the potential for political violence may rise in the nation’s capital in the following weeks. This concern persists despite extensive preparations by law enforcement to prevent a recurrence of the January 6 insurrection.
The U.S. Capitol Police, consisting of over 2,000 officers, along with agencies like the Secret Service, have seen a marked increase in threats against elected officials. This trend includes two assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump this year alone.
However, questions remain regarding the readiness of these agencies for the crucial upcoming events, particularly in light of a recent report that pointed to the need for significant reforms within the Secret Service in order to effectively fulfill its security mission.
The agency is responsible for managing security for the certification of the Electoral College results on January 6—designated as a National Special Security Event—and for the Inauguration Day activities on January 20.
Experts consulted by States Newsroom convey a palpable concern that the likelihood of political violence could escalate post-Election Day, particularly if election outcomes spurred objections from political leaders. The potential for chaos increases, especially with the expectation of a closely contested race, which may lead to delayed results and subsequent legal disputes.
“You can never ensure absolute security,” stated Javed Ali, an associate professor at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. “It’s idealistic to think it’s achievable. Planning for all possible variables leaves inherent gaps and vulnerabilities.”
Darrell M. West from the Brookings Institution noted that rising tensions could transform into violence, particularly if influential leaders reject the election results. “The rampant, extreme rhetoric we’ve observed could incite individuals to take drastic measures,” West asserted.
Trump’s refusal to acknowledge the results of the 2020 election, compounded by his running mate, Senator J.D. Vance, failing to concede Trump’s loss, raises further anxieties. Vance recently remarked on the “peaceful transfer of power” that occurred in January 2021.
Continuing to propagate false assertions about electoral integrity, Trump suggests that if he loses again, he will reiterate claims of a rigged system. Additionally, he faces four felony counts related to interference with the 2020 election, an ongoing legal battle likely to extend beyond the upcoming election.
Lawmakers at Greater Risk
Members of Congress may be at elevated risk compared to presidential candidates, primarily due to their more common living situations and lack of extensive security measures that higher officials receive.
Unlike the presidency, which benefits from a thorough succession plan to prevent disruption following an untoward event, Congress has been criticized for inadequate contingency planning in the event of significant disasters.
U.S. Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger previously testified that the agency seeks to enhance protections for lawmakers within the presidential succession line, indicating current standards are lacking compared to that of the Secretary of State.
Due to fluctuating threats, ordinary members of Congress typically do not receive continuous security unless specific threats materialize, leaving them vulnerable, especially if election results trigger violent responses.
Assassination Attempts Highlight Security Concerns
The precarious nature of political safety is underscored by recent attempts on Trump’s life, notwithstanding his high-level security detail. During a rally in Pennsylvania, a shooter aimed at Trump, while another individual was apprehended with a firearm near his Florida residence.
These incidents prompt scrutiny toward the Secret Service’s protective capabilities, although agency leadership insists on their readiness to fulfill these critical responsibilities.
In his rhetoric, Trump has perpetuated disinformation that incites hostility against various figures, including lawmakers and immigrant populations. Recently, he discussed the potential use of the National Guard or military force against political adversaries, marking a significant escalation in rhetoric.
His comments reflect a troubling potential for civil unrest following the election, regardless of its outcome, emphasizing the importance of a peaceful transition of power.
Anticipated Delays in Election Results
West suggests that substantial violence is improbable immediately after the polls close on November 5, as election results may take several days to finalize. The Associated Press took until the weekend following the 2020 election to declare Biden the victor, amidst extensive counting processes.
In swing states, the impact of mail-in ballots, which are predominantly used by Democrats, could complicate the understanding of election outcomes for voters. “It’s possible that Trump might initially seem ahead,” West stated, noting the implications this could have on public perception of legitimacy should the results shift.
The potential for misinformation regarding electoral integrity, especially if results appear to change significantly post-Election Day, poses a considerable risk for inciting unrest. Additionally, Congress members’ responsibility in promoting factual information becomes critical.
“Responsible leadership is essential. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen it consistently in recent months,” West noted, highlighting the dangers of misinformation swirling in the current political climate.
Improved Preparedness Since 2020
According to Ali, the federal law enforcement approach to handling potential election-related violence has evolved since 2020, yet risks remain for individuals whom law enforcement can’t fully anticipate. He expressed belief in the preparedness of agencies such as the Secret Service and the Capitol Police for various threat scenarios, albeit cautioning about vulnerabilities at state levels.
In instances of misinformation, both foreign and domestic actors are likely to play a role, including potential adversaries such as Iran and Russia, particularly targeting the integrity of the electoral process.
Steps Toward Enhanced Security
U.S. Capitol Police Inspector General David T. Harper confirmed that following the January 6 events, the Capitol Police have addressed over 100 recommendations aimed at closing loopholes in security procedures. “They’ve improved significantly, though one can never be certain about complete preparedness in such unpredictable circumstances,” Harper remarked.
The U.S. Capitol Police has implemented new legislation allowing for expedited requests for National Guard assistance without extensive bureaucratic approval and has enhanced intelligence coordination with local and federal agencies.
Secret Service’s Role in Upcoming Events
The Secret Service will be at the forefront of planning security for key transitional events, marking a notable change from past arrangements. They have been tasked with preparing for events classified as National Special Security Events by the Department of Homeland Security and coordinating with various agencies for comprehensive preparedness.
The independent investigation into the security breaches involving Trump earlier this year criticized the Secret Service for its need for reforms, citing the dangers posed to both individuals being protected and to democratic integrity.
D.C.’s Vigilant Preparation
D.C. Assistant City Administrator Chris Rodriguez emphasized that local authorities are closely monitoring potential signs of violent intent and are committed to collaboration across agencies to ensure a peaceful electoral process. “Learning from the past is crucial, and our relationships with federal agencies are robust,” Rodriguez stated, confidently affirming the city’s readiness to foster a secure atmosphere for the upcoming election.
“We aim for a peaceful transition of power, which stands as a cornerstone of our democracy,” he concluded.
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