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Poll Shows Liberals Expanding Lead Over Conservatives as Election Campaign Progresses

Recent polling data indicates that the Liberal Party has increased its lead by double digits over the Conservative Party during the third week of the federal election campaign. According to an Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, a significant 46 percent of respondents indicated they would vote for the Liberals, marking a two-point increase from the previous week.

In contrast, support for the Conservatives has declined, falling four points to 34 percent among surveyed voters. Ipsos emphasized that this level of support would position the Liberals well within majority-government territory if the election were held today.

The poll also revealed that 10 percent of Canadians prefer the New Democratic Party (NDP), while three percent support the Green Party. The Bloc Quebecois holds 26 percent support in Quebec, translating to a national figure of six percent. Notably, all three parties witnessed a one-point increase compared to last week.

Furthermore, seven percent of voters expressed uncertainty about their party choice. The current 12-point gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is notably wider than the margin identified in Ipsos polling during the campaign’s opening week.

This development reflects the Liberals’ notable recovery from prior polling deficits against the Conservatives, particularly following scrutiny faced by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Political Developments Amid Campaign

During the past week, Liberal Leader Mark Carney was compelled to halt his campaign activities on two occasions to address newly imposed tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump. Carney convened several discussions with his cabinet and provincial leaders, subsequently announcing countermeasures in his capacity as caretaker prime minister. His diplomatic efforts included a conversation with Trump on March 28, which appeared to lead to a more conciliatory stance from the U.S. president. Additionally, Canada was not subjected to new tariffs during Trump’s announcement of his “Liberation Day” tariff policy.

In the latest Ipsos poll, 45 percent of voters now view Carney as the prime candidate for leadership, reflecting a one-point increase from previous findings. Conversely, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has seen a slight decline, with his support dipping to 32 percent. Notably, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh experienced the most substantial increase, rising four points to 12 percent, while Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet benefited from a two-point rise to five percent. The Green Party’s co-leader, Jonathan Pedneault, remains steady at three percent.

The updated poll indicates a shift in public sentiment regarding the Liberals’ potential for re-election, as only four percent of respondents were undecided compared to last week. Currently, 47 percent of those surveyed believe the Liberals deserve a fourth term, while 53 percent feel that a change in party leadership is necessary.

Voter Certainty and Election Sentiment

According to the Ipsos survey, a substantial 53 percent of voters expressed that they are “absolutely” certain about their voting preferences for Election Day, while 16 percent indicated that their choices have changed over the past four weeks. A significant majority, 69 percent, conveyed a desire for a majority government to avert the need for another election soon, with nearly 90 percent agreeing on the critical importance of this election for the future of Canada.

The campaign is heavily influenced by Trump’s tariffs and threats to Canadian sovereignty, prompting all political parties to promise to bolster and diversify the Canadian economy beyond reliance on the U.S. Recent polling has shown that the relationship with the United States is viewed as the second most pressing issue for voters, with affordability and cost of living holding the top spot.

According to Ipsos, voters overwhelmingly favor the Liberals as the party best equipped to handle relations with the U.S., outpacing the Conservatives by an impressive 40-point margin.

The findings derive from an Ipsos poll conducted between April 1st and 3rd, 2025, on behalf of Global News, which surveyed a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and older through online platforms. The poll’s precision is within ± 3.8 percentage points 19 times out of 20. Ipsos adheres to the disclosure standards set by the Canadian Research Insights Council.

Source
globalnews.ca