Photo credit: globalnews.ca

Federal Election Polls Show Changing Dynamics Between Parties

As the federal election campaign reaches its midpoint, recent polling data indicates that while the Liberal Party retains a lead, the Conservative Party is closing in on their support.

A new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News reveals that 42 percent of Canadians say they would vote for the Liberals, representing a decline of four points from the previous week, marking the first instance of backsliding for the party since the campaign kicked off. In contrast, the Conservatives have gained two points, bringing their support to 36 percent.

According to Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, “The momentum the Liberals once had seems to be slipping away. This is potentially the sole positive news the Conservatives have received since Mark Carney assumed leadership of the Liberal Party. However, whether this shift will be lasting remains to be seen.”

Support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) has declined by one point to 11 percent, while the Green Party also saw a drop to two percent. The Bloc Quebecois maintains consistent support at six percent nationally, which translates to 25 percent among Quebec voters.

Interestingly, the number of undecided voters has risen by four points in the past week, reaching 11 percent, just as the leaders prepare for debates in Montreal.

In the lead-up to the English-language debate, 41 percent of respondents expressed confidence in Carney’s ability to perform well, whereas 34 percent favored Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre for the French-language debate.

After three weeks on the campaign trail, one-third of Canadians indicated they are now more inclined to vote for the Liberals compared to 25 percent who feel the same way about the Conservatives. Conversely, 33 percent said they are now less likely to support the Conservatives, with 27 percent leaning away from the Liberals.

“The NDP faces a challenging path to retain its official party status if these trends continue,” noted Bricker. “Voters who feel disenfranchised appear to be gravitating towards Poilievre and the Conservatives, as they view them as the clear alternative for change.”

Changing Perspectives on Leadership

The demand for change in leadership has gained traction, with 56 percent of participants indicating a desire for a new leader, compared to 44 percent who support the idea of re-electing the Liberals. In evaluations of which party leader would best serve as prime minister, Carney still outpaces Poilievre, although the former has seen a decline in support by four points to 41 percent, while Poilievre gained four points to reach 36 percent. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains steady at 12 percent.

Poilievre seems to be gaining ground among voters regarding who is best equipped to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump and the implications of tariffs and protectionist policies. Although a significant portion of voters still see Carney as the tougher negotiator, ratings for Poilievre have improved across key issues by two to six points in the past week. Notably, 42 percent of respondents believe Poilievre would not resist U.S. demands concerning trade and security, while there has been a rise in skepticism about Carney’s negotiating stance, with 27 percent expressing similar concerns.

In discussions around the government’s response to economic impacts from Trump’s tariffs, 46 percent of those surveyed emphasized the need for lower income taxes, followed by 41 percent advocating for solutions to affordability issues. Around 30 percent supported a temporary break from the GST or HST, while propositions such as small business tax relief garnered lesser interest.

The Campaign’s Central Issues

The pressing concerns regarding affordability and the cost of living continue to dominate the campaign dialogue, with 41 percent of Canadians identifying it as a top issue—up five points from two weeks prior. The significance of U.S.-Canada relations has diminished, moving behind the economy, healthcare, and housing in terms of concern among voters.

The Conservatives are now perceived by a narrow margin as better positioned to address affordability, having tied with the Liberals the previous week. Meanwhile, the Liberals maintain a commanding lead over the Conservatives in managing U.S. relations, leading by 62 points.

Bricker pointed out that this shift might be a pivotal factor in the Conservatives’ recent surge. “If this election centers on dealing with Trump and tariffs, the Liberals are in a favorable position. However, if the focus shifts to affordability, the Conservatives become formidable contenders,” he remarked.

The information presented here derives from an Ipsos poll conducted between April 8 and 10, 2025, for Global News. This survey involved a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and older, collected online through the Ipsos I-Say panel and other sources. Respondents were compensated for their participation, and rigorous measures were taken to ensure demographic representation aligned with Census data. The precision of non-probability Ipsos polls is defined by a credibility interval; the current poll holds an accuracy of ±3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had the entire Canadian populace been surveyed. The credibility interval is broader for subpopulations. Ipsos adheres to the disclosure standards of the Canadian Research and Insights Council.

Source
globalnews.ca