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Recent data from Ipsos indicates that Mark Carney’s Liberal Party holds a four-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives just before Monday’s general election.
Despite the overall close race, the Liberals maintain a significant advantage in pivotal provinces like Ontario and Québec, which are likely to influence the party’s chances of securing a fourth consecutive term from Canadian voters.
The Ipsos polling, released on Sunday and commissioned by Global News, shows the Liberals at 42 percent support nationally, with the Conservatives trailing at 38 percent. The New Democrats, led by Jagmeet Singh, are far behind at just nine percent.
As the election approaches, the majority of Canadian voters appear to have solidified their choices. “Only five percent of Canadians remain undecided, and 71 percent of those who have made a choice are ‘absolutely certain’ of it,” stated Ipsos.
The focus now shifts to voter turnout and the factors motivating individuals to cast their ballots.
According to the survey, Carney’s Liberals lead in all regions of Canada except for Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, which poses challenges for the Conservative party.
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The Ipsos report underscores that the Liberals’ potential victory is particularly strong in Canada’s most populous regions, with an eight-point lead over the Conservatives in Ontario and a commanding double-digit advantage in Québec.
Moreover, the Liberals are also performing well in Atlantic Canada and maintain a slight edge in British Columbia, a competitive area for multiple parties, aided by a decline in NDP support.
Poilievre’s path to forming a government hinges on making headway in Ontario, where the Liberals currently lead by eight points—47 percent to 39 percent for the Conservatives. In Québec, the Liberals stand at 40 percent, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 25 percent, the Conservatives at 24 percent, and the New Democrats falling to six percent.
British Columbia has also evolved into a closely contested three-way race, with the Liberals at 42 percent, the Conservatives at 39 percent, and the NDP at 13 percent. The Green Party holds three percent support, which may jeopardize co-leader Elizabeth May’s seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
Another crucial element for the Liberals is their significant lead among older voters aged 55 and above, who historically are more likely to participate in elections. Nearly half (48 percent) in this demographic favor the Liberals, compared to 34 percent supporting the Conservatives. Meanwhile, voters aged 35-54 show a Conservative advantage of 43 percent to 38 percent for the Liberals, and among younger voters aged 18-34, both parties are tied at 38 percent, with the NDP gaining some traction at 15 percent.
A trend reversal has been noted, as the traditional Conservative advantage among male voters appears to be diminishing, with support now at 42 percent for the Conservatives and 40 percent for the Liberals. Conversely, female voters favor the Liberals significantly, with 44 percent backing Carney’s party compared to 35 percent for the Conservatives.
Ultimately, voter turnout will play a decisive role in the parliamentary landscape, as the outcome hinges on how motivated supporters are to vote and which party can effectively convert enthusiastic intentions into actual ballots cast. Ipsos conducted the survey with 2,500 eligible voters between April 22 and April 26, employing a combination of online and live-interview telephone methods. The national results are deemed accurate within 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, though the margin of error increases for provincial and regional figures.
Source
globalnews.ca