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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the media following the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on September 18, 2024, at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, DC.
Key Takeaways for Today
Major Rate Adjustment
In a significant move, the U.S. Federal Reserve has implemented a reduction in interest rates by half a percentage point, adjusting the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. According to committee members, projections indicate that this rate could further decline to between 4.25% and 4.5% by the end of the year, suggesting another anticipated cut before 2025. Additionally, the Fed has revised its forecast for the unemployment rate this year, increasing it from 4% to 4.4%.
Market Reactions Mixed
Although the announcement of the rate cut initially propelled U.S. markets upward, the gains proved to be short-lived. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 dipped by 0.29%, the Dow Jones fell by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq experienced a drop of 0.31%. In contrast, Thursday saw a rise in Asia-Pacific markets, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index appreciating by approximately 1.8% as the city also opted to decrease its interest rate.
Election Insights
A recent survey conducted by CNBC suggests that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris may have a higher likelihood of winning the presidential election compared to former President Donald Trump. Among 27 professionals, including investment strategists and economists, 48% favored Harris, while 41% leaned towards Trump, and 11% were undecided.
Ray Dalio’s Perspective
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, expressed the significance of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, labeling it as potentially the most critical in his lifetime. He emphasized that neither major party candidate aligns with the country’s current needs. Furthermore, he described the economy as being in a state of “relative equilibrium” and highlighted the Federal Reserve’s challenge of managing interest rates without setting them too high or too low.
Stocks to Watch Post-Cut
Following the Fed’s decision, it is expected that yields on Treasurys will decrease, prompting investors to seek potentially higher returns from riskier assets like equities. Within this context, CNBC Pro identified ten stocks that are particularly sensitive to changes in interest rates and are likely to benefit the most from the recent cut.
Overall Assessment
Before the Fed’s meeting, futures markets hinted at a 64% probability of a 50-basis-point reduction, based on the CME FedWatch tool. In contrast, many analysts were leaning towards a more conservative 25-basis-point cut, as reflected in a CNBC survey.
The discrepancy in forecasts indicates a possible divergence between objective economic evaluations and more aspirational hopes for rate adjustments to spur growth. When market expectations align with actual decisions, such as this substantial cut, investors may react unpredictably, leading to volatility.
Following the announcement, indices initially reached new highs, only to retreat by the end of the trading day, complicating the narrative surrounding investor sentiment. The swings can sometimes appear unfounded, as markets often behave irrationally, reacting strongly to significant news.
Amid these fluctuations, Jerome Powell reassured concerns regarding economic downturns, stating he does not see indicators pointing to an elevated risk of recession. He characterized the Fed’s decision as a “recalibration” of monetary policy, positioning the central bank as proactive rather than reactive.
As investors process Powell’s statements and the implications of this rate cut, it is evident that the market’s responses will evolve, influenced by both rational assessments and instinctual reactions to rapid changes in economic policy.
Source
www.cnbc.com