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Moderna Inc. has recently revised its sales forecast for 2025, reducing its expectations by nearly $1 billion. This adjustment comes amid anticipated challenges the company expects to face later this year. As Moderna strives to manage expenditures while broadening its vaccine offerings, it now projects revenues for 2025 to range from $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, predominantly from its Covid vaccine and a new vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
This downward revision is significant, especially considering that in September, the company forecasted a revenue range of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion. At that time, it had signalled a shift from expectations of breaking even by 2026 to now aiming for 2028, targeting a revenue figure of $6 billion.
In premarket trading on Monday, Moderna’s stock plummeted by 18%, an indication of investor concern. Other companies in the vaccine sector experienced declines as well, including Novavax, BioNTech, and Pfizer, which saw drops of 6%, 3%, and a fractional decline, respectively.
According to Moderna’s Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock, the company is bracing for several uncertainties that may impact its financial performance in 2025. He highlighted four key factors contributing to these challenges, primarily centered around intensified competition within the Covid vaccine market. Moderna’s market share for Covid vaccinations in the U.S. reportedly decreased to 40% by the end of 2024, a drop from 48% the previous year, with predictions of further reductions this year.
Mock elaborated that a new agreement allows Sanofi to co-commercialize Novavax’s Covid vaccine worldwide, which could heighten competition in the sector. Additionally, there has been a decline in overall vaccination rates, down approximately 7% in fall 2024 compared to 2023, which affects demand. The CFO also mentioned uncertainties regarding manufacturing contracts with certain countries and potential recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) concerning RSV revaccination.
Despite these setbacks, Moderna anticipates reducing its cash expenses by $1 billion in 2025, with projections of a further $500 million reduction in 2026. “We are taking the right amount of cost to preserve our cash,” Mock asserted, expressing enthusiasm about investing in and diversifying the company’s product range.
This news arrives as Moderna looks to navigate the aftermath of a substantial decrease in demand for its Covid vaccine, which has historically been its sole commercial product until the recent introduction of the RSV vaccine. It also precedes Moderna’s appearance at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, a pivotal event for healthcare executives that often facilitates business deals within the industry.
For 2024, revenue from Moderna’s Covid and RSV vaccines has met forecasts, landing between $3 billion and $3.1 billion. The company noted that its latest Covid vaccine received U.S. approval three weeks earlier than its predecessor, which might have contributed to these figures.
Nonetheless, the financial performance of Moderna’s Covid vaccine has diminished considerably, from $6.7 billion in 2023 to a staggering $18 billion in 2022, as public willingness to receive vaccinations declines.
Looking ahead, Moderna is focused on expanding its portfolio, with ambitions for ten new product approvals over the next three years. This includes developing a combination vaccine targeting both Covid and the flu, as well as a next-generation Covid vaccine, with expectations of at least three approvals by 2025. Underpinning these efforts is Moderna’s commitment to its messenger RNA platform technology, which has been instrumental in its Covid and RSV vaccines.
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